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A Computationally Efficient Method to Determine the Probability of Rainfall-Triggered Cut Slope Failure Accounting for Upslope Hydrological Conditions (2023)
Journal Article
Robson, E., Milledge, D., Utili, S., & Dattola, G. (2023). A Computationally Efficient Method to Determine the Probability of Rainfall-Triggered Cut Slope Failure Accounting for Upslope Hydrological Conditions. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-023-03694-5

We present a new computationally efficient methodology to estimate the probability of rainfall-induced slope failure based on mechanical probabilistic slope stability analyses coupled with a hydrogeological model of the upslope area. The model accoun... Read More about A Computationally Efficient Method to Determine the Probability of Rainfall-Triggered Cut Slope Failure Accounting for Upslope Hydrological Conditions.

Intergenerational Preparedness: Climate Change, Community Interest Obligations, and the Environmental Rule of Law (2023)
Journal Article
Minnerop, P. (2023). Intergenerational Preparedness: Climate Change, Community Interest Obligations, and the Environmental Rule of Law. Global Policy, https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13219

This article argues that the protection of ‘community interests’ in international law includes intertemporal obligations of States, in cases where it is scientifically foreseeable that (fully) maintaining the ‘status quo’ of a protected community int... Read More about Intergenerational Preparedness: Climate Change, Community Interest Obligations, and the Environmental Rule of Law.

The post-2016 long-lasting Vulcanian activity of Sabancaya volcano (Peru) and associated aeolian remobilisation of volcanic ash (2023)
Journal Article
Fries, A., Dominguez, L., Jarvis, P. A., Pistolesi, M., Manrique, N., Aguilar, R., …Bonadonna, C. (2023). The post-2016 long-lasting Vulcanian activity of Sabancaya volcano (Peru) and associated aeolian remobilisation of volcanic ash. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 441, Article 107876. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2023.107876

Perceptions of volcanic air pollution and exposure reduction practices on the Island of Hawai‘i: Working towards socially relevant risk communication (2023)
Journal Article
Horwell, C., Elias, T., Covey, J., Bhandari, R., & Truby, J. (2023). Perceptions of volcanic air pollution and exposure reduction practices on the Island of Hawai‘i: Working towards socially relevant risk communication. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 95, Article 103853. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103853

Kīlauea volcano, on the Island of Hawai‘i, is one of the most active volcanoes in the world. Over the past four decades it has released large amounts of volcanic gases and aerosols which form volcanic air pollution known as ‘vog’. Communities downwin... Read More about Perceptions of volcanic air pollution and exposure reduction practices on the Island of Hawai‘i: Working towards socially relevant risk communication.

Managed Urban Retreat: The Trouble with Crisis Narratives (2023)
Journal Article
Rahman, M. F., Lewis, D., Kuhl, L., Baldwin, A., Ruszczyk, H., Nadiruzzaman, M., & Mahid, Y. (2023). Managed Urban Retreat: The Trouble with Crisis Narratives. Urban Geography, https://doi.org/10.1080/02723638.2023.2228094

In response to narratives of the mass movement of people triggered by climate change, a number of “managed retreat” models have been proposed as policy options, especially for densely populated urban areas in the Global South. Reviewing a case study... Read More about Managed Urban Retreat: The Trouble with Crisis Narratives.

A systematic comparison of deforestation drivers and policy effectiveness across the Amazon biome (2023)
Journal Article
Hänggli, A., Levy, S., Armenteras Pascual, D., Bovolo, I., Brandao, J., Rueda, X., & Garrett, R. D. (2023). A systematic comparison of deforestation drivers and policy effectiveness across the Amazon biome. Environmental Research Letters, 18(7), Article 073001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd408

The Amazon biome, spanning nine countries, has one of the highest rates of deforestation worldwide. This deforestation contributes to biodiversity loss, climate change, the spread of infectious diseases, and damage to rural and indigenous livelihoods... Read More about A systematic comparison of deforestation drivers and policy effectiveness across the Amazon biome.

Intermittent demand, inventory obsolescence, and temporal aggregation forecasts (2023)
Journal Article
Sanguri, K., Patra, S., Nikolopoulos, K., & Punia, S. (2023). Intermittent demand, inventory obsolescence, and temporal aggregation forecasts. International Journal of Production Research, https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2023.2199435

Forecasting for intermittent demand is considered a difficult task and becomes even more challenging in the presence of obsolescence. Traditionally the problem has been dealt with modifications in the conventional parametric methods such as Croston.... Read More about Intermittent demand, inventory obsolescence, and temporal aggregation forecasts.

Social Collateral and consumer payment media during the economic crisis in Europe (2023)
Journal Article
Litsioua, K., & Nikolopoulos, K. (in press). Social Collateral and consumer payment media during the economic crisis in Europe. Journal of Quantitative Finance and Economics,

In this research paper we investigate the relationship between economic crises and the changes in levels of social collateral, as well as the indirect changes in the use of payment media from consumers as a result of the latter. The scene is Europe i... Read More about Social Collateral and consumer payment media during the economic crisis in Europe.

Quantifying heterogeneity in ecohydrological partitioning in urban green spaces through the integration of empirical and modelling approaches (2023)
Journal Article
Stevenson, J. L., Birkel, C., Comte, J., Tetzlaff, D., Marx, C., Neill, A., …Soulsby, C. (2023). Quantifying heterogeneity in ecohydrological partitioning in urban green spaces through the integration of empirical and modelling approaches. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 195(4), Article 468. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11055-6

Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change (2023)
Journal Article
Grossmann, I., Rotella, A., Hutcherson, C. A., Sharpinskyi, K., Varnum, M. E., Achter, S., …Collaborative, T. F. (2023). Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change. Nature Human Behaviour, 7(4), 484-501. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the... Read More about Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change.

An empirical analysis of participation in international environmental agreements (2023)
Journal Article
Bellelli, F. S., Scarpa, R., & Aftab, A. (2023). An empirical analysis of participation in international environmental agreements. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 118, Article 102783. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102783

This study investigates the determinants of participation in environmental agreements, with a special focus on lobbying and regional agreements. To this end, we collated the largest ratification dataset in the literature and identified all countries... Read More about An empirical analysis of participation in international environmental agreements.