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Emulation and History Matching using the hmer Package (2023)
Journal Article
Iskauskas, A., Vernon, I., Goldstein, M., Scarponi, D., McKinley, T. J., White, R. G., & McCreesh, N. (in press). Emulation and History Matching using the hmer Package. Journal of Statistical Software,

FLAMINGO: calibrating large cosmological hydrodynamical simulations with machine learning. (2023)
Journal Article
Kugel, R., Schaye, J., Schaller, M., Helly, J. C., Braspenning, J., Elbers, W., …Vernon, I. (2023). FLAMINGO: calibrating large cosmological hydrodynamical simulations with machine learning. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 526(4), 6103-6127. https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stad2540

To fully take advantage of the data provided by large-scale structure surveys, we need to quantify the potential impact of baryonic effects, such as feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN) and star formation, on cosmological observables. In simula... Read More about FLAMINGO: calibrating large cosmological hydrodynamical simulations with machine learning..

First observation of 28O (2023)
Journal Article
Kondo, Y., Achouri, N. L., Falou, H. A., Atar, L., Aumann, T., Baba, H., …Yoshida, S. (2023). First observation of 28O. Nature, 620(7976), 965-970. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06352-6

Subjecting a physical system to extreme conditions is one of the means often used to obtain a better understanding and deeper insight into its organization and structure. In the case of the atomic nucleus, one such approach is to investigate isotopes... Read More about First observation of 28O.

Demonstrating multi-country calibration of a tuberculosis model using new history matching and emulation package - hmer (2023)
Journal Article
Scarponi, D., Iskauskas, A., Clark, R. A., Vernon, I., McKinley, T. J., Goldstein, M., …McCreesh, N. (2023). Demonstrating multi-country calibration of a tuberculosis model using new history matching and emulation package - hmer. Epidemics, 43, Article 100678. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100678

Infectious disease models are widely used by epidemiologists to improve the understanding of transmission dynamics and disease natural history, and to predict the possible effects of interventions. As the complexity of such models increases, however,... Read More about Demonstrating multi-country calibration of a tuberculosis model using new history matching and emulation package - hmer.

A Bayesian Computer Model Analysis of Robust Bayesian Analyses (2022)
Journal Article
Vernon, I., & Gosling, J. (2023). A Bayesian Computer Model Analysis of Robust Bayesian Analyses. Bayesian Analysis, 18(4), 1367-1399. https://doi.org/10.1214/22-ba1340

We harness the power of Bayesian emulation techniques, designed to aid the analysis of complex computer models, to examine the structure of complex Bayesian analyses themselves. These techniques facilitate robust Bayesian analyses and/or sensitivity... Read More about A Bayesian Computer Model Analysis of Robust Bayesian Analyses.

Ab initio predictions link the neutron skin of 208Pb to nuclear forces (2022)
Journal Article
Hu, B., Jaing, W., Miyagi, T., Sun, Z., Ekström, A., Forssén, C., …Vernon, I. (2022). Ab initio predictions link the neutron skin of 208Pb to nuclear forces. Nature Physics, 18(10), 1196-1200. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41567-022-01715-8

Heavy atomic nuclei have an excess of neutrons over protons, which leads to the formation of a neutron skin whose thickness is sensitive to details of the nuclear force. This links atomic nuclei to properties of neutron stars, thereby relating object... Read More about Ab initio predictions link the neutron skin of 208Pb to nuclear forces.

Bayesian Emulation and History Matching of JUNE (2022)
Journal Article
Vernon, I., Owen, J., Aylett-Bullock, J., Cuestra-Lazaro, C., Frawley, J., Quera-Bofarull, A., …Krauss, F. (2022). Bayesian Emulation and History Matching of JUNE. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 380(2233), Article 20220039. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0039

We analyse JUNE: a detailed model of Covid-19 transmission with high spatial and demographic resolution, developed as part of the RAMP initiative. JUNE requires substantial computational resources to evaluate, making model calibration and general unc... Read More about Bayesian Emulation and History Matching of JUNE.

Complex model calibration through emulation, a worked example for a stochastic epidemic model (2022)
Journal Article
Dunne, M., Mohammadi, H., Challenor, P., Borgo, R., Porphyre, T., Vernon, I., …Swallow, B. (2022). Complex model calibration through emulation, a worked example for a stochastic epidemic model. Epidemics, 39, Article 100574. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100574

Uncertainty quantification is a formal paradigm of statistical estimation that aims to account for all uncertainties inherent in the modelling process of real-world complex systems. The methods are directly applicable to stochastic models in epidemio... Read More about Complex model calibration through emulation, a worked example for a stochastic epidemic model.

Efficient Emulation of Computer Models Utilising Multiple Known Boundaries of Differing Dimension (2022)
Journal Article
Jackson, S. E., & Vernon, I. (2023). Efficient Emulation of Computer Models Utilising Multiple Known Boundaries of Differing Dimension. Bayesian Analysis, 18(1), 165-191. https://doi.org/10.1214/22-ba1304

Emulation has been successfully applied across a wide variety of scientific disciplines for efficiently analysing computationally intensive models. We develop known boundary emulation strategies which utilise the fact that, for many computer models,... Read More about Efficient Emulation of Computer Models Utilising Multiple Known Boundaries of Differing Dimension.

Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling (2022)
Journal Article
Swallow, B., Birrell, P., Blake, J., Burgman, M., Challenor, P., Coffeng, L. E., …Vernon, I. (2022). Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling. Epidemics, 38, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547

The estimation of parameters and model structure for informing infectious disease response has become a focal point of the recent pandemic. However, it has also highlighted a plethora of challenges remaining in the fast and robust extraction of infor... Read More about Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling.

JUNE: open-source individual-based epidemiology simulation (2021)
Journal Article
Aylett-Bullock, J., Cuesta-Lazaro, C., Quera-Bofarull, A., Icaza-Lizaola, M., Sedgewick, A., Truong, H., …Krauss, F. (2021). JUNE: open-source individual-based epidemiology simulation. Royal Society Open Science, 8(7), https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210506

We introduce June, an open-source framework for the detailed simulation of epidemics on the basis of social interactions in a virtual population constructed from geographically granular census data, reflecting age, sex, ethnicity and socio-economic i... Read More about JUNE: open-source individual-based epidemiology simulation.

A Bayesian Statistical Approach to Decision Support for TNO OLYMPUS Well Control Optimisation under Uncertainty (2020)
Conference Proceeding
Owen, J., Vernon, I., & Hammersley, R. (2020). A Bayesian Statistical Approach to Decision Support for TNO OLYMPUS Well Control Optimisation under Uncertainty. . https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.202035109

Well control and field development optimisation are tasks of increasing importance within the petroleum industry, as seen by the development of and large participation in the 2018 TNO OLYMPUS Field Development Optimisation Challenge. Complex mathemat... Read More about A Bayesian Statistical Approach to Decision Support for TNO OLYMPUS Well Control Optimisation under Uncertainty.

Accounting for Model Discrepancy in Uncertainty Analysis by Combining Numerical Simulation and Bayesian Emulation Techniques (2020)
Conference Proceeding
Formentin, H. N., Vernon, I., Goldstein, M., Caiado, C., Avansi, G., & Schiozer, D. (2020). Accounting for Model Discrepancy in Uncertainty Analysis by Combining Numerical Simulation and Bayesian Emulation Techniques. . https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.202035095

Model discrepancy specifies unavoidable differences between a physical system and its corresponding computer model. Incomplete information, simplifications and lack of knowledge about the physical state originate model discrepancy. Misevaluation of m... Read More about Accounting for Model Discrepancy in Uncertainty Analysis by Combining Numerical Simulation and Bayesian Emulation Techniques.

A Bayesian Optimisation Workflow for Field Development Planning Under Geological Uncertainty (2020)
Conference Proceeding
Bordas, R., Heritage, J., Javed, M., Peacock, G., Taha, T., Ward, P., …Hammersley, R. (2020). A Bayesian Optimisation Workflow for Field Development Planning Under Geological Uncertainty. . https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.202035121

Field development planning using reservoir models is a key step in the field development process. Numerical optimisation of specific field development strategies is often used to aid planning. Bayesian Optimisation is a popular optimisation method th... Read More about A Bayesian Optimisation Workflow for Field Development Planning Under Geological Uncertainty.

Understanding hormonal crosstalk in Arabidopsis root development via emulation and history matching (2020)
Journal Article
Jackson, S., Vernon, I., Liu, J., & Lindsey, K. (2020). Understanding hormonal crosstalk in Arabidopsis root development via emulation and history matching. Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology, 19(2), Article 20180053. https://doi.org/10.1515/sagmb-2018-0053

A major challenge in plant developmental biology is to understand how plant growth is coordinated by interacting hormones and genes. To meet this challenge, it is important to not only use experimental data, but also formulate a mathematical model. F... Read More about Understanding hormonal crosstalk in Arabidopsis root development via emulation and history matching.

Efficient Selection of Reservoir Model Outputs within an Emulation-Based Bayesian History Matching Uncertainty Analysis (2019)
Journal Article
Ferreira, C., Vernon, I., Caiado, C., Formentin, H., Avansi, G., Goldstein, M., & Schiozer, D. (2019). Efficient Selection of Reservoir Model Outputs within an Emulation-Based Bayesian History Matching Uncertainty Analysis. SPE Journal, OTC-29801. https://doi.org/10.4043/29801-ms

When performing classic uncertainty reduction based on dynamic data, a large number of reservoir simulations need to be evaluated at high computational cost. As an alternative, we construct Bayesian emulators that mimic the dominant behaviour of the... Read More about Efficient Selection of Reservoir Model Outputs within an Emulation-Based Bayesian History Matching Uncertainty Analysis.

Gaining more understanding about reservoir behavior through assimilation of breakthrough time and productivity deviation in the history matching process (2019)
Journal Article
Formentin, H. N., Almeida, F. L. R., Avansi, G. D., Maschio, C., Schiozer, D. J., Caiado, C., …Goldstein, M. (2019). Gaining more understanding about reservoir behavior through assimilation of breakthrough time and productivity deviation in the history matching process. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 173, 1080-1096. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2018.10.045

History matching (HM) is an inverse problem where uncertainties in attributes are reduced by comparison with observed dynamic data. Typically, normalized misfit summarizes dissimilarities between observed and simulation data. Especially for long-time... Read More about Gaining more understanding about reservoir behavior through assimilation of breakthrough time and productivity deviation in the history matching process.

Systematic uncertainty reduction for petroleum reservoirs combining reservoir simulation and Bayesian emulation techniques (2019)
Conference Proceeding
Nandi Formentin, H., Vernon, I., Avansi, G. D., Caiado, C., Maschio, C., Goldstein, M., & Schiozer, D. J. (2019). Systematic uncertainty reduction for petroleum reservoirs combining reservoir simulation and Bayesian emulation techniques. In SPE Europec featured at 81st EAGE Conference and Exhibition, 3-6 June, London, England, UK (SPE-195478). https://doi.org/10.2118/195478-ms

Reservoir simulation models incorporate physical laws and reservoir characteristics. They represent our understanding of sub-surface structures based on the available information. Emulators are statistical representations of simulation models, offeri... Read More about Systematic uncertainty reduction for petroleum reservoirs combining reservoir simulation and Bayesian emulation techniques.

Known Boundary Emulation of Complex Computer Models (2019)
Journal Article
Vernon, I., Jackson, S., & Cumming, J. (2019). Known Boundary Emulation of Complex Computer Models. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 7(3), 838-876. https://doi.org/10.1137/18m1164457

Computer models are now widely used across a range of scientific disciplines to describe various complex physical systems, however to perform full uncertainty quantification we often need to employ emulators. An emulator is a fast statistical constru... Read More about Known Boundary Emulation of Complex Computer Models.

Evaluation of Regions of Influence for Dimensionality Reduction in Emulation of Production Data (2018)
Conference Proceeding
Ferreira, C., Avansi, G., Vernon, I., Schiozer, D., & Goldstein, M. (2018). Evaluation of Regions of Influence for Dimensionality Reduction in Emulation of Production Data. . https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.201802145

Oil and gas companies use reservoir simulation models for production forecasting and for business and technical decisions at the various stages of field management. The size and complexity of the reservoirs often requires reservoir models with a high... Read More about Evaluation of Regions of Influence for Dimensionality Reduction in Emulation of Production Data.

Choice of time horizon critical in estimating costs and effects of changes to HIV programmes (2018)
Journal Article
McCreesh, N., Andrianakis, I., Nsubuga, R. N., Strong, M., Vernon, I., McKinley, T. J., …White, R. G. (2018). Choice of time horizon critical in estimating costs and effects of changes to HIV programmes. PLoS ONE, 13(5), Article e0196480. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0196480

Background: Uganda changed its antiretroviral therapy guidelines in 2014, increasing the CD4 threshold for antiretroviral therapy initiation from 350 cells/μl to 500 cells/μl. We investigate what effect this change in policy is likely to have on HIV... Read More about Choice of time horizon critical in estimating costs and effects of changes to HIV programmes.

Emulation of reservoir production forecast considering variation in petrophysical properties (2018)
Journal Article
Moreno, R., Avansi, G., Schiozer, D., Vernon, I., Goldstein, M., & Caiado, C. (2018). Emulation of reservoir production forecast considering variation in petrophysical properties. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 165, 711-725. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2018.02.056

Implementation of proxy models, such as emulators might reduce the computational time required in a variety of reservoir simulation studies. By definition, an emulator uses reservoir properties as input parameters in a statistical model constructed f... Read More about Emulation of reservoir production forecast considering variation in petrophysical properties.

Approximate Bayesian Computation and simulation-based inference for complex stochastic epidemic models (2018)
Journal Article
McKinley, T., Vernon, I., Andrianakis, I., McCreesh, N., Oakley, J., Nsubuga, R., …White, R. (2018). Approximate Bayesian Computation and simulation-based inference for complex stochastic epidemic models. Statistical Science, 33(1), 4-18. https://doi.org/10.1214/17-sts618

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and other simulation-based inference methods are becoming increasingly used for inference in complex systems, due to their relative ease-of-implementation. We briefly review some of the more popular variants of... Read More about Approximate Bayesian Computation and simulation-based inference for complex stochastic epidemic models.

Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex systems biology models: emulation, global parameter searches and evaluation of gene functions (2018)
Journal Article
Vernon, I., Liu, J., Goldstein, M., Rowe, J., Topping, J., & Lindsey, K. (2018). Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex systems biology models: emulation, global parameter searches and evaluation of gene functions. BMC systems biology, 12, Article 1. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12918-017-0484-3

Many mathematical models have now been employed across every area of systems biology. These models increasingly involve large numbers of unknown parameters, have complex structure which can result in substantial evaluation time relative to the needs... Read More about Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex systems biology models: emulation, global parameter searches and evaluation of gene functions.

Uncertainty Analysis for Heavy Simulations of Galaxy Formation (2018)
Journal Article
Vernon, I. (2018). Uncertainty Analysis for Heavy Simulations of Galaxy Formation

Extremely complex simulations of the universe are now being performed in order to study galaxy formation. The responsible use of such simulations presents a huge challenge as it requires a comprehensive uncertainty analysis: a seemingly impossible ta... Read More about Uncertainty Analysis for Heavy Simulations of Galaxy Formation.

Improving ART programme retention and viral suppression are key to maximising impact of treatment as prevention – a modelling study (2017)
Journal Article
McCreesh, N., Andrianakis, I., Nsubuga, R., Strong, M., Vernon, I., McKinley, T., …White, R. (2017). Improving ART programme retention and viral suppression are key to maximising impact of treatment as prevention – a modelling study. BMC Infectious Diseases, 17(1), Article 557. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2664-6

Background UNAIDS calls for fewer than 500,000 new HIV infections/year by 2020, with treatment-as-prevention being a key part of their strategy for achieving the target. A better understanding of the contribution to transmission of people at differen... Read More about Improving ART programme retention and viral suppression are key to maximising impact of treatment as prevention – a modelling study.

Efficient History Matching of a High Dimensional Individual-Based HIV Transmission Model (2017)
Journal Article
Andrianakis, I., McCreesh, N., Vernon, I., McKinley, T., Oakley, J., Nsubuga, R., …White, R. (2017). Efficient History Matching of a High Dimensional Individual-Based HIV Transmission Model. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 5(1), 694-719. https://doi.org/10.1137/16m1093008

History matching is a model (pre-)calibration method that has been applied to computer models from a wide range of scientific disciplines. In this work we apply history matching to an individual-based epidemiological model of HIV that has 96 input an... Read More about Efficient History Matching of a High Dimensional Individual-Based HIV Transmission Model.

Universal test, treat, and keep: improving ART retention is key in cost-effective HIV control in Uganda (2017)
Journal Article
McCreesh, N., Andrianakis, I., Nsubuga, R., Strong, M., Vernon, I., McKinley, T., …White, R. (2017). Universal test, treat, and keep: improving ART retention is key in cost-effective HIV control in Uganda. BMC Infectious Diseases, 17, Article 322. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2420-y

Background: With ambitious new UNAIDS targets to end AIDS by 2030, and new WHO treatment guidelines, there is increased interest in the best way to scale-up ART coverage. We investigate the cost-effectiveness of various ART scale-up options in Uganda... Read More about Universal test, treat, and keep: improving ART retention is key in cost-effective HIV control in Uganda.

Constraints on galaxy formation models from the galaxy stellar mass function and its evolution (2016)
Journal Article
Rodrigues, L. F. S., Vernon, I., & Bower, R. G. (2017). Constraints on galaxy formation models from the galaxy stellar mass function and its evolution. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 466(2), 2418-2435. https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stw3269

We explore the parameter space of the semi-analytic galaxy formation model GALFORM, studying the constraints imposed by measurements of the galaxy stellar mass function (GSMF) and its evolution. We use the Bayesian emulator method to quickly eliminat... Read More about Constraints on galaxy formation models from the galaxy stellar mass function and its evolution.

History matching of a complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus transmission by using variance emulation (2016)
Journal Article
Andrianakis, I., Vernon, I., McCreesh, N., McKinley, T., Oakley, J., Nsubuga, R., …White, R. (2017). History matching of a complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus transmission by using variance emulation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C, 66(4), 717-740. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12198

Complex stochastic models are commonplace in epidemiology, but their utility depends on their calibration to empirical data. History matching is a (pre)calibration method that has been applied successfully to complex deterministic models. In this wor... Read More about History matching of a complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus transmission by using variance emulation.

Use of Emulator and Canonical Correlation to Incorporate 4D Seismic Data in the Reduction of Uncertainty Process (2015)
Conference Proceeding
Ferreira, C., Davolio, A., Schiozer, D., Vernon, I., & Goldstein, M. (2015). Use of Emulator and Canonical Correlation to Incorporate 4D Seismic Data in the Reduction of Uncertainty Process. . https://doi.org/10.2118/174387-ms

In petroleum engineering, simulation models are used in reservoir performance prediction and in the decision-making process. These models are complex systems, typically characterized by a vast number of input parameters. Typically, the physical state... Read More about Use of Emulator and Canonical Correlation to Incorporate 4D Seismic Data in the Reduction of Uncertainty Process.

Bayesian history matching of complex infectious disease models using emulation: A tutorial and a case study on HIV in Uganda (2015)
Journal Article
Andrianakis, I., Vernon, I., McCreesh, N., McKinley, T., Oakley, J., Nsubuga, R., …White, R. (2015). Bayesian history matching of complex infectious disease models using emulation: A tutorial and a case study on HIV in Uganda. PLoS Computational Biology, 11(1), Article e1003968. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003968

Advances in scientific computing have allowed the development of complex models that are being routinely applied to problems in disease epidemiology, public health and decision making. The utility of these models depends in part on how well they can... Read More about Bayesian history matching of complex infectious disease models using emulation: A tutorial and a case study on HIV in Uganda.

Use of Emulator Methodology for Uncertainty Reduction Quantification (2014)
Conference Proceeding
Ferreira, C., Vernon, I., Schiozer, D., & Goldstein, M. (2014). Use of Emulator Methodology for Uncertainty Reduction Quantification. In LACPEC 14: SPE Latin American and Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference, proceedings, 21-23 May 2014, Maracaibo, Venezuela. https://doi.org/10.2118/169405-ms

In petroleum engineering, simulation models are used in the reservoir performance prediction and in the decision making process. These models are complex systems, typically characterized by a vast number of input parameters. Usually the physical stat... Read More about Use of Emulator Methodology for Uncertainty Reduction Quantification.

Galaxy Formation: Bayesian History Matching for the Observable Universe (2014)
Journal Article
Vernon, I., Goldstein, M., & Bower, R. (2014). Galaxy Formation: Bayesian History Matching for the Observable Universe. Statistical Science, 29(1), 81-90. https://doi.org/10.1214/12-sts412

Cosmologists at the Institute of Computational Cosmology, Durham University, have developed a state of the art model of galaxy formation known as Galform, intended to contribute to our understanding of the formation, growth and subsequent evolution o... Read More about Galaxy Formation: Bayesian History Matching for the Observable Universe.

Assessing Model Adequacy (2013)
Book Chapter
Goldstein, M., Seheult, A., & Vernon, I. (2013). Assessing Model Adequacy. In M. Mulligan, & J. Wainwright (Eds.), Environmental modelling : finding simplicity in complexity (435-449). (2). Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118351475.ch26

Environmental models are simplified representations of complex physical systems. The implementation of any such model, as a computer simulator, involves further simplifications and approximations. The value of the resulting simulator, in giving scien... Read More about Assessing Model Adequacy.

Rejoinder - Galaxy Formation: a Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis (2010)
Journal Article
Vernon, I., Goldstein, M., & Bower, R. G. (2010). Rejoinder - Galaxy Formation: a Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis. Bayesian Analysis, 05(04), 697-708. https://doi.org/10.1214/10-ba524rej

We thank the discussants David Poole, Pritam Ranjan, Earl Lawrence, David Higdon, and David van Dyk for their commentaries on our paper, and for raising many interesting points for discussion, ranging from practical questions related to the imple- me... Read More about Rejoinder - Galaxy Formation: a Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis.

Galaxy Formation: a Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis (2010)
Journal Article
Vernon, I., Goldstein, M., & Bower, R. G. (2010). Galaxy Formation: a Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis. Bayesian Analysis, 05(04), 619-670. https://doi.org/10.1214/10-ba524

In many scientific disciplines complex computer models are used to understand the behaviour of large scale physical systems. An uncertainty anal- ysis of such a computer model known as Galform is presented. Galform models the creation and evolution o... Read More about Galaxy Formation: a Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis.

Modular Dynamic Emulation and Internal Model Discrepancy for a Rainfall Runoff Model (2010)
Report
Vernon, I., Seheult, A., & Goldstein, M. (2010). Modular Dynamic Emulation and Internal Model Discrepancy for a Rainfall Runoff Model. MUCM

We construct a simple modular dynamic emulator for a rainfall runoff model. We investigate the accuracy of such an emulator and discuss the difficulties of such an approach. The emulator is used to investigate the effects of certain internal uncertai... Read More about Modular Dynamic Emulation and Internal Model Discrepancy for a Rainfall Runoff Model.

The Parameter Space of Galaxy Formation (2010)
Journal Article
Bower, R., Vernon, I., Goldstein, M., Benson, A., Lacey, C., Baugh, C., …Frenk, C. (2010). The Parameter Space of Galaxy Formation. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 407(4), 2017-2045. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2010.16991.x

Semi-analytic models are a powerful tool for studying the formation of galaxies. However, these models inevitably involve a significant number of poorly constrained parameters that must be adjusted to provide an acceptable match to the observed Unive... Read More about The Parameter Space of Galaxy Formation.

Exchangeable Computer Models (2009)
Report
House, L., Goldstein, M., & Vernon, I. (2009). Exchangeable Computer Models. MUCM

Analysts often use deterministic computer models to predict the behavior of com- plex physical systems when observational data are limited. However, inferences based partially or entirely on simulated data require adequate assessments of model uncer-... Read More about Exchangeable Computer Models.

Bayes Linear Analysis of Imprecision in Computer Models, with Application to Understanding Galaxy Formation (2009)
Conference Proceeding
Vernon, I. R., & Goldstein, M. (2009). Bayes Linear Analysis of Imprecision in Computer Models, with Application to Understanding Galaxy Formation. In T. Augustin, F. P. A. Coolen, S. Moral, & M. C. M. Troffaes (Eds.), Proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (441-450)

Imprecision arises naturally in the context of computer models and their relation to reality. An imprecise treatment of general computer models is presented, illustrated with an analysis of a complex galaxy formation simulation known as Galform. The... Read More about Bayes Linear Analysis of Imprecision in Computer Models, with Application to Understanding Galaxy Formation.

Graviton Emission into Non-Z_2 Symmetric Brane World Spacetimes (2005)
Journal Article
Vernon, I. R., & Jennings, D. (2005). Graviton Emission into Non-Z_2 Symmetric Brane World Spacetimes. Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics, 07, https://doi.org/10.1088/1475-7516/2005/07/011

The equations for the evolution of a homogeneous brane world that emits gravitons at early times, and into a non-Z_2 symmetric bulk, are derived using an AdS-Vaidya spacetime approximation. The behaviour of the black hole mass parameters either side... Read More about Graviton Emission into Non-Z_2 Symmetric Brane World Spacetimes.

Bulk black holes radiating in non-Z_2 brane-world spacetimes (2005)
Journal Article
Jennings, D., Vernon, I. R., Davis, A., & van de Bruck, C. (2005). Bulk black holes radiating in non-Z_2 brane-world spacetimes. Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics, 2005(04), Article 013. https://doi.org/10.1088/1475-7516/2005/04/013

In this paper we present a general asymmetric brane model involving arbitrary energy transport to and from an embedded 4-D FRW universe. We derive a locally defined mass function for the 5D spacetime and describe its time evolution on the brane. We t... Read More about Bulk black holes radiating in non-Z_2 brane-world spacetimes.

Brane World Cosmology Without the Z_2 Symmetry (2001)
Journal Article
Davis, A., Vernon, I., Davis, S. C., & Perkins, W. B. (2001). Brane World Cosmology Without the Z_2 Symmetry. Physics Letters B, 504(3), 254-261. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0370-2693%2801%2900291-x

The Friedmann equation for a positive tension brane situated between two bulk spacetimes that posses the same 5D cosmological constant, but which does not posses a Z2 symmetry of the metric itself is derived, and the possible effects of dropping the... Read More about Brane World Cosmology Without the Z_2 Symmetry.

Cosmological phase transitions in a brane world (2001)
Journal Article
Davis, S. C., Perkins, W. B., Davis, A., & Vernon, I. R. (2001). Cosmological phase transitions in a brane world. Physical Review D, Particles and fields, 63(8), Article 083518. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevd.63.083518

In brane world scenarios the Friedmann equation is modified, resulting in an increased expansion at early times. This has important effects on cosmological phase transitions which we investigate, elucidating significant differences to the standard ca... Read More about Cosmological phase transitions in a brane world.