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Efficient History Matching of a High Dimensional Individual-Based HIV Transmission Model

Andrianakis, I.; McCreesh, N.; Vernon, I.; McKinley, T.J.; Oakley, J.E.; Nsubuga, R.; Goldstein, M.; White, R.G.

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Authors

I. Andrianakis

N. McCreesh

T.J. McKinley

J.E. Oakley

R. Nsubuga

M. Goldstein

R.G. White



Abstract

History matching is a model (pre-)calibration method that has been applied to computer models from a wide range of scientific disciplines. In this work we apply history matching to an individual-based epidemiological model of HIV that has 96 input and 50 output parameters, a model of much larger scale than others that have been calibrated before using this or similar methods. Apart from demonstrating that history matching can analyze models of this complexity, a central contribution of this work is that the history match is carried out using linear regression, a statistical tool that is elementary and easier to implement than the Gaussian process--based emulators that have previously been used. Furthermore, we address a practical difficulty with history matching, namely, the sampling of tiny, nonimplausible spaces, by introducing a sampling algorithm adjusted to the specific needs of this method. The effectiveness and simplicity of the history matching method presented here shows that it is a useful tool for the calibration of computationally expensive, high dimensional, individual-based models.

Citation

Andrianakis, I., McCreesh, N., Vernon, I., McKinley, T., Oakley, J., Nsubuga, R., …White, R. (2017). Efficient History Matching of a High Dimensional Individual-Based HIV Transmission Model. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 5(1), 694-719. https://doi.org/10.1137/16m1093008

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Mar 27, 2017
Online Publication Date Aug 1, 2017
Publication Date Aug 1, 2017
Deposit Date Aug 22, 2016
Publicly Available Date Sep 20, 2017
Journal SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification
Publisher Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 5
Issue 1
Pages 694-719
DOI https://doi.org/10.1137/16m1093008
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1377490

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Copyright Statement
© 2017, Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics





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