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Climate warming shifts riverine macroinvertebrate communities to be more sensitive to chemical pollutants (2024)
Journal Article
Sinclair, T., Craig, P., & Maltby, L. L. (2024). Climate warming shifts riverine macroinvertebrate communities to be more sensitive to chemical pollutants. Global Change Biology, 30(4), Article e17254. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17254

Freshwaters are highly threatened ecosystems that are vulnerable to chemical pollution and climate change. Freshwater taxa vary in their sensitivity to chemicals and changes in species composition can potentially affect the sensitivity of assemblages... Read More about Climate warming shifts riverine macroinvertebrate communities to be more sensitive to chemical pollutants.

Spatial variation in the sensitivity of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages to chemical stressors (2023)
Journal Article
Liang, R., Sinclair, T. M., Craig, P. S., & Maltby, L. (2024). Spatial variation in the sensitivity of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages to chemical stressors. Water Research, 120854. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2023.120854

Assessing spatial variation in the chemical sensitivity of natural assemblages will enhance ecological relevance and reduce uncertainty in ecological risk assessments and the derivation of environmental quality standards (EQSs). Ho... Read More about Spatial variation in the sensitivity of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages to chemical stressors.

Application of evidence-based methods to construct mechanism-driven chemical assessment frameworks (2022)
Journal Article
Hoffmann, S., Aiassa, E., Angrish, M., Beausoleil, C., Bois, F., Ciccolallo, L., …Tsaioun, K. (2022). Application of evidence-based methods to construct mechanism-driven chemical assessment frameworks. ALTEX - Alternatives to Animal Experimentation, 39(3), 499-518. https://doi.org/10.14573/altex.2202141

The workshop titled “Application of evidence-based methods to construct mechanism-driven chemical assessment frameworks” was co-organized by the Evidence-based Toxicology Collaboration and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and hosted by EFSA... Read More about Application of evidence-based methods to construct mechanism-driven chemical assessment frameworks.

Cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid (2020)
Journal Article
Craig, P. S., Dujardin, B., Hart, A., Hernandez‐Jerez, A. F., Hougaard Bennekou, S., Kneuer, C., …Mohimont, L. (2020). Cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid. EFSA Journal, 18(4), Article e06088. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6088

A retrospective chronic cumulative risk assessment of dietary exposure to pesticide residues, supported by an uncertainty analysis based on expert knowledge elicitation, was conducted for two effects on the thyroid, hypothyroidism and parafollicular... Read More about Cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid.

Cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have acute effects on the nervous system (2020)
Journal Article
Craig, P. S., Dujardin, B., Hart, A., Hernández‐Jerez, A. F., Hougaard Bennekou, S., Kneuer, C., …Mohimont, L. (2020). Cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have acute effects on the nervous system. EFSA Journal, 18(4), Article e06087. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6087

A retrospective acute cumulative risk assessment of dietary exposure to pesticide residues, supported by an uncertainty analysis based on expert knowledge elicitation, was conducted for two effects on the nervous system: brain and/or erythrocyte acet... Read More about Cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have acute effects on the nervous system.

Applicability of in silico tools for the prediction of dermal absorption for pesticides (2018)
Journal Article
Kneuer, C., Charistou, A., Craig, P., Eleftheriadou, D., Engel, N., Kjaerstad, M., …Buist, H. (2018). Applicability of in silico tools for the prediction of dermal absorption for pesticides. EFSA Supporting Publications, 15(10), Article 1493E. https://doi.org/10.2903/sp.efsa.2018.en-1493

Based on the “Human in vitro dermal absorption datasets” published as supporting information to the revised EFSA Guidance on Dermal Absorption, in silico models for prediction of absorption across the skin have been evaluated. For this evaluation, a... Read More about Applicability of in silico tools for the prediction of dermal absorption for pesticides.

The principles and methods behind EFSA's Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessment (2018)
Journal Article
Benford, D., Halldorsson, T., Jeger, M. J., Knutsen, H. K., More, S., Naegeli, H., …Hardy, A. (2018). The principles and methods behind EFSA's Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessment. EFSA Journal, 16(1), Article e05122. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5122

To meet the general requirement for transparency in EFSA's work, all its scientific assessments must consider uncertainty. Assessments must say clearly and unambiguously what sources of uncertainty have been identified and what is their impact on the... Read More about The principles and methods behind EFSA's Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessment.

Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments (2018)
Journal Article
Benford, D., Halldorsson, T., Jeger, M. J., Knutsen, H. K., More, S., Naegeli, H., …Hardy, A. (2018). Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments. EFSA Journal, 16(1), Article e05123. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5123

Uncertainty analysis is the process of identifying limitations in scientific knowledge and evaluating their implications for scientific conclusions. It is therefore relevant in all EFSA's scientific assessments and also necessary, to ensure that the... Read More about Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments.

Fisher information under Gaussian quadrature models (2017)
Journal Article
Marques da Silva Júnior, A. H., Einbeck, J., & Craig, P. S. (2018). Fisher information under Gaussian quadrature models. Statistica Neerlandica, 72(2), 74-89. https://doi.org/10.1111/stan.12116

This paper develops formulae to compute the Fisher information matrix for the regression parameters of generalized linear models with Gaussian random effects. The Fisher information matrix relies on the estimation of the response variance under the m... Read More about Fisher information under Gaussian quadrature models.

Guidance on the use of the weight of evidence approach in scientific assessments (2017)
Journal Article
Hardy, A., Benford, D., Halldorsson, T., Jeger, M. J., Knutsen, H. K., More, S., …Younes, M. (2017). Guidance on the use of the weight of evidence approach in scientific assessments. EFSA Journal, 15(8), Article e04971. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2017.4971

EFSA requested the Scientific Committee to develop a guidance document on the use of the weight of evidence approach in scientific assessments for use in all areas under EFSA's remit. The guidance document addresses the use of weight of evidence appr... Read More about Guidance on the use of the weight of evidence approach in scientific assessments.

Guidance on dermal absorption (2017)
Journal Article
Buist, H., Craig, P., Dewhurst, I., Hougaard Bennekou, S., Kneuer, C., Machera, K., …Chiusolo, A. (2017). Guidance on dermal absorption. EFSA Journal, 15(6), Article e04873. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2017.4873

This guidance on the assessment of dermal absorption has been developed to assist notifiers, users of test facilities and Member State authorities on critical aspects related to the setting of dermal absorption values to be used in risk assessments o... Read More about Guidance on dermal absorption.

Scientific Opinion addressing the state of the science on risk assessment of plant protection products for in-soil organisms (2017)
Journal Article
Ockleford, C., Adriaanse, P., Berny, P., Brock, T., Duquesne, S., Grilli, S., …Rob, S. (2017). Scientific Opinion addressing the state of the science on risk assessment of plant protection products for in-soil organisms. EFSA Journal, 15(2), Article e04690. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2017.4690

Following a request from EFSA, the Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues developed an opinion on the science behind the risk assessment of plant protection products for in-soil organisms. The current risk assessment scheme is reviewed... Read More about Scientific Opinion addressing the state of the science on risk assessment of plant protection products for in-soil organisms.

Future needs and recommendations in the development of species sensitivity distributions: Estimating toxicity thresholds for aquatic ecological communities and assessing impacts of chemical exposures (2016)
Journal Article
Belanger, S., Barron, M., Craig, P., Dyer, S., Galay-Burgos, M., Hamer, M., …Whitehouse, P. (2016). Future needs and recommendations in the development of species sensitivity distributions: Estimating toxicity thresholds for aquatic ecological communities and assessing impacts of chemical exposures. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, 13(4), 664-674. https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.1841

A species sensitivity distribution (SSD) is a probability model of the variation of species sensitivities to a stressor, in particular chemical exposure. The SSD approach has been used as a decision support tool in environmental protection and manage... Read More about Future needs and recommendations in the development of species sensitivity distributions: Estimating toxicity thresholds for aquatic ecological communities and assessing impacts of chemical exposures.

Gradient test for generalised linear models with random effects (2016)
Conference Proceeding
da Silva-Junior, A., Einbeck, J., & Craig, P. (2016). Gradient test for generalised linear models with random effects. In J. F. Dupuy, & J. Josse (Eds.), Proceedings of the 31st International Workshop on Statistical Modelling. July 4-8, 2016, Rennes, France (213-218)

This work develops the gradient test for parameter selection in generalised linear models with random effects. Asymptotically, the test statistic has a chi-squared distribution and the statistic has a compelling feature: it does not require computati... Read More about Gradient test for generalised linear models with random effects.

Hierarchical Emulation: a method for modeling and comparing nested simulators (2016)
Journal Article
Oughton, R. H., & Craig, P. S. (2016). Hierarchical Emulation: a method for modeling and comparing nested simulators. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 4(1), 495-519. https://doi.org/10.1137/15m1007914

Computer simulators often contain options to include extensions, leading to different versions of a particular simulator with slightly different input spaces. We develop hierarchical emulation, a method for emulating such simulators and for learning... Read More about Hierarchical Emulation: a method for modeling and comparing nested simulators.

Towards a landscape scale management of pesticides: ERA using changes in modelled occupancy and abundance to assess long-term population impacts of pesticides (2015)
Journal Article
Topping, C. J., Craig, P. S., de Jong, F., Klein, M., Laskowski, R., Manachini, B., …van der Linden, T. (2015). Towards a landscape scale management of pesticides: ERA using changes in modelled occupancy and abundance to assess long-term population impacts of pesticides. Science of the Total Environment, 537, 159-169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.152

Pesticides are regulated in Europe and this process includes an environmental risk assessment (ERA) for non-target arthropods (NTA). Traditionally a non-spatial or field trial assessment is used. In this study we exemplify the introduction of a spati... Read More about Towards a landscape scale management of pesticides: ERA using changes in modelled occupancy and abundance to assess long-term population impacts of pesticides.

Scientific Opinion addressing the state of the science on risk assessment of plant protection products for non-target arthropods (2015)
Journal Article
Aagaard, A., Brock, T., Capri, E., Duquesne, S., Filipic, M., Hernandez-Jerez, A., …Streissl, F. (2015). Scientific Opinion addressing the state of the science on risk assessment of plant protection products for non-target arthropods. EFSA Journal, 13(2), Article 3996. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2015.3996

Following a request from the European Food Safety Authority, the Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues developed an opinion on the science to support the development of a risk assessment scheme of plant protection products for non-tar... Read More about Scientific Opinion addressing the state of the science on risk assessment of plant protection products for non-target arthropods.

Father absence and age at first birth in a western sample (2013)
Journal Article
Boothroyd, L., Craig, P., Crossman, R., & Perrett, D. (2013). Father absence and age at first birth in a western sample. American Journal of Human Biology, 25(3), 366-369. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajhb.22378

Objectives: Although a large literature has shown links between “father absence” during early childhood, and earlier puberty and sexual behavior in girls in Western populations, there are only a few studies which have looked at timing of reproduction... Read More about Father absence and age at first birth in a western sample.

Exploring novel ways of using species sensitivity distributions to establish PNECs for industrial chemicals: Final report to Project Steering Group 3 April 2013 (2013)
Report
Craig, P. S. (2013). Exploring novel ways of using species sensitivity distributions to establish PNECs for industrial chemicals: Final report to Project Steering Group 3 April 2013. Statoil and Unilever

In all of what follows, we are concerned with the problem of estimating the HC5 (concentration hazardous to 5% of species) for a chemical based on the SSD (species sensitivity distribution) concept and using acute data. Data for the chemical will be... Read More about Exploring novel ways of using species sensitivity distributions to establish PNECs for industrial chemicals: Final report to Project Steering Group 3 April 2013.

Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens – Elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures (2013)
Journal Article
Boobis, A., Flari, V., Gosling, J. P., Hart, A., Craig, P., Rushton, L., & Idahosa-Taylor, E. (2013). Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens – Elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures. Food and Chemical Toxicology, 57, 106-118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fct.2013.03.003

The general approach to risk assessment of genotoxic carcinogens has been to advise reduction of exposure to “as low as reasonably achievable/practicable” (ALARA/P). However, whilst this remains the preferred risk management option, it does not provi... Read More about Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens – Elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures.

On the quantification of intertest variability in ecotoxicity data with application to species sensitivity distributions (2012)
Journal Article
Hickey, G., Craig, P., Luttik, R., & De Zwart, D. (2012). On the quantification of intertest variability in ecotoxicity data with application to species sensitivity distributions. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 31(8), 1903-1910. https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.1891

Ecotoxicological hazard assessment relies on species effect data to estimate quantities such as the predicted no-effect concentration. While there is a concerted effort to quantify uncertainty in risk assessments, the uncertainty due to intertest var... Read More about On the quantification of intertest variability in ecotoxicity data with application to species sensitivity distributions.

Competing statistical methods for the fitting of normal species sensitivity distributions : recommendations for practitioners (2012)
Journal Article
Hickey, G., & Craig, P. (2012). Competing statistical methods for the fitting of normal species sensitivity distributions : recommendations for practitioners. Risk Analysis, 32(7), 1232-1243. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01728.x

A species sensitivity distribution (SSD) models data on toxicity of a specific toxicant to species in a defined assemblage. SSDs are typically assumed to be parametric, despite noteworthy criticism, with a standard proposal being the log-normal distr... Read More about Competing statistical methods for the fitting of normal species sensitivity distributions : recommendations for practitioners.

Species non-exchangeability in probabilistic ecotoxicological risk assessment (2012)
Journal Article
Craig, P. S., Hickey, G. L., Luttik, R., & Hart, A. (2012). Species non-exchangeability in probabilistic ecotoxicological risk assessment. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 175(1), 243-262. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2011.00716.x

Current ecotoxicological risk assessment for chemical substances is based on the assumption that tolerances of all species in a specified ecological community are a priori exchangeable for each new substance. We demonstrate non-exchangeability by usi... Read More about Species non-exchangeability in probabilistic ecotoxicological risk assessment.

Variation in the level of protection afforded to birds and crustaceans exposed to different pesticides under standard risk assessment procedures (2011)
Journal Article
Luttik, R., Hart, A., Roelofs, W., Craig, P., & Mineau, P. (2011). Variation in the level of protection afforded to birds and crustaceans exposed to different pesticides under standard risk assessment procedures. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, 7(3), 459-465. https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.183

First-tier risk assessment for pesticides is often based on the quotient of the toxicity divided by the predicted environmental concentration or dose. This ratio is compared to a fixed assessment factor (AF) to decide whether the pesticide is to be a... Read More about Variation in the level of protection afforded to birds and crustaceans exposed to different pesticides under standard risk assessment procedures.

On the application of loss functions in determining assessment factors for ecological risk. (2009)
Journal Article
Hickey, G. L., Craig, P. S., & Hart, A. (2009). On the application of loss functions in determining assessment factors for ecological risk. Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety, 72(2), 293-300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoenv.2008.06.004

Assessment factors have been proposed as a means to extrapolate from data on the concentrations hazardous to a small sample of species to the concentration hazardous to p% of the species in a given community (HCp). Aldenberg and Jaworska [2000. Uncer... Read More about On the application of loss functions in determining assessment factors for ecological risk..

Making Species Salinity Sensitivity Distributions Reflective of Naturally Occurring Communities: Using Rapid Testing and Bayesian Statistics (2008)
Journal Article
Hickey, G. L., Kefford, B. J., Dunlop, J. E., & Craig, P. S. (2008). Making Species Salinity Sensitivity Distributions Reflective of Naturally Occurring Communities: Using Rapid Testing and Bayesian Statistics. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 27(11), 2403-2411. https://doi.org/10.1897/08-079.1

Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) may accurately predict the proportion of species in a community that are at hazard from environmental contaminants only if they contain sensitivity data from a large sample of species representative of the mix... Read More about Making Species Salinity Sensitivity Distributions Reflective of Naturally Occurring Communities: Using Rapid Testing and Bayesian Statistics.

A new reconstruction of multivariate normal orthant probabilities (2007)
Journal Article
Craig, P. (2008). A new reconstruction of multivariate normal orthant probabilities. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 70(1), 227-243. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2007.00625.x

A new method is introduced for geometrically reconstructing orthant probabilities for non-singular multivariate normal distributions. Orthant probabilities are expressed in terms of those for auto-regressive sequences and an efficient method is devel... Read More about A new reconstruction of multivariate normal orthant probabilities.

Mathematical and statistical basis of options for risk calculations - Appendix to EFSA Opinion on possibility of lowering uncertainty factors if additional species used in assessment of acute and chronic risk to aquatic organisms (2006)
Report
Craig, P. (2006). Mathematical and statistical basis of options for risk calculations - Appendix to EFSA Opinion on possibility of lowering uncertainty factors if additional species used in assessment of acute and chronic risk to aquatic organisms. European Food Safety Authority

Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from Commission related to the appropriate variability factor(s) to be used for acute dietary exposure assessment of pesticide residues in fruit and vegetables (2005)
Report
Barcelo Culleres, D., Black, R., Boesten, J., Boobis, A., Hardy, A., Hart, A., …Walters, E. (2005). Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from Commission related to the appropriate variability factor(s) to be used for acute dietary exposure assessment of pesticide residues in fruit and vegetables. European Food Safety Authority

In a batch of food items previously treated with a pesticide, the residue of the pesticide remaining on/in single food items at the time of consumption varies between items, due to a variety of factors. So there is a distribution of residues, with so... Read More about Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from Commission related to the appropriate variability factor(s) to be used for acute dietary exposure assessment of pesticide residues in fruit and vegetables.

Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from EFSA related to the assessment of the acute and chronic risk to aquatic organisms with regard to the possibility of lowering the uncertainty factor if additional species were tested (2005)
Report
Barcelo Culleres, D., Black, R., Boesten, J., Boobis, A., Hardy, A., Hart, A., …Roelofs, W. (2005). Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from EFSA related to the assessment of the acute and chronic risk to aquatic organisms with regard to the possibility of lowering the uncertainty factor if additional species were tested. European Food Safety Authority

The Scientific Panel on Plant Health, Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR Panel) was asked by EFSA for an opinion on the possibility of refining the acute and chronic aquatic risk assessment of pesticides by lowering the assessment fact... Read More about Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from EFSA related to the assessment of the acute and chronic risk to aquatic organisms with regard to the possibility of lowering the uncertainty factor if additional species were tested.

Bayesian forecasting for complex systems using computer simulators (2001)
Journal Article
Craig, P., Goldstein, M., Rougier, J., & Seheult, A. (2001). Bayesian forecasting for complex systems using computer simulators. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96(454), 717-729. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214501753168370

Although computer models are often used for forecasting future outcomes of complex systems, the uncertainties in such forecasts are not usually treated formally. We describe a general Bayesian approach for using a computer model or simulator of a com... Read More about Bayesian forecasting for complex systems using computer simulators.

Constructing partial prior specifications for models of complex physical systems. (1998)
Journal Article
Craig, P., Goldstein, M., Seheult, A., & Smith, J. (1998). Constructing partial prior specifications for models of complex physical systems. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series D, The statistician, 47(1), 37-53. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00115

Many large scale problems, particularly in the physical sciences, are solved using complex, high dimensional models whose outputs, for a given set of inputs, are expensive and time consuming to evaluate. The complexity of such problems forces us to f... Read More about Constructing partial prior specifications for models of complex physical systems..