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Professor Peter Craig's Outputs (46)

Exploring novel ways of using species sensitivity distributions to establish PNECs for industrial chemicals: Final report to Project Steering Group 3 April 2013 (2013)
Report
Craig, P. S. (2013). Exploring novel ways of using species sensitivity distributions to establish PNECs for industrial chemicals: Final report to Project Steering Group 3 April 2013. Statoil and Unilever

In all of what follows, we are concerned with the problem of estimating the HC5 (concentration hazardous to 5% of species) for a chemical based on the SSD (species sensitivity distribution) concept and using acute data. Data for the chemical will be... Read More about Exploring novel ways of using species sensitivity distributions to establish PNECs for industrial chemicals: Final report to Project Steering Group 3 April 2013.

Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens – Elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures (2013)
Journal Article
Boobis, A., Flari, V., Gosling, J. P., Hart, A., Craig, P., Rushton, L., & Idahosa-Taylor, E. (2013). Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens – Elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures. Food and Chemical Toxicology, 57, 106-118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fct.2013.03.003

The general approach to risk assessment of genotoxic carcinogens has been to advise reduction of exposure to “as low as reasonably achievable/practicable” (ALARA/P). However, whilst this remains the preferred risk management option, it does not provi... Read More about Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens – Elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures.

On the quantification of intertest variability in ecotoxicity data with application to species sensitivity distributions (2012)
Journal Article
Hickey, G., Craig, P., Luttik, R., & De Zwart, D. (2012). On the quantification of intertest variability in ecotoxicity data with application to species sensitivity distributions. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 31(8), 1903-1910. https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.1891

Ecotoxicological hazard assessment relies on species effect data to estimate quantities such as the predicted no-effect concentration. While there is a concerted effort to quantify uncertainty in risk assessments, the uncertainty due to intertest var... Read More about On the quantification of intertest variability in ecotoxicity data with application to species sensitivity distributions.

Competing statistical methods for the fitting of normal species sensitivity distributions : recommendations for practitioners (2012)
Journal Article
Hickey, G., & Craig, P. (2012). Competing statistical methods for the fitting of normal species sensitivity distributions : recommendations for practitioners. Risk Analysis, 32(7), 1232-1243. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01728.x

A species sensitivity distribution (SSD) models data on toxicity of a specific toxicant to species in a defined assemblage. SSDs are typically assumed to be parametric, despite noteworthy criticism, with a standard proposal being the log-normal distr... Read More about Competing statistical methods for the fitting of normal species sensitivity distributions : recommendations for practitioners.

Species non-exchangeability in probabilistic ecotoxicological risk assessment (2012)
Journal Article
Craig, P. S., Hickey, G. L., Luttik, R., & Hart, A. (2012). Species non-exchangeability in probabilistic ecotoxicological risk assessment. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 175(1), 243-262. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2011.00716.x

Current ecotoxicological risk assessment for chemical substances is based on the assumption that tolerances of all species in a specified ecological community are a priori exchangeable for each new substance. We demonstrate non-exchangeability by usi... Read More about Species non-exchangeability in probabilistic ecotoxicological risk assessment.

Variation in the level of protection afforded to birds and crustaceans exposed to different pesticides under standard risk assessment procedures (2011)
Journal Article
Luttik, R., Hart, A., Roelofs, W., Craig, P., & Mineau, P. (2011). Variation in the level of protection afforded to birds and crustaceans exposed to different pesticides under standard risk assessment procedures. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, 7(3), 459-465. https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.183

First-tier risk assessment for pesticides is often based on the quotient of the toxicity divided by the predicted environmental concentration or dose. This ratio is compared to a fixed assessment factor (AF) to decide whether the pesticide is to be a... Read More about Variation in the level of protection afforded to birds and crustaceans exposed to different pesticides under standard risk assessment procedures.

On the application of loss functions in determining assessment factors for ecological risk. (2009)
Journal Article
Hickey, G. L., Craig, P. S., & Hart, A. (2009). On the application of loss functions in determining assessment factors for ecological risk. Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety, 72(2), 293-300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoenv.2008.06.004

Assessment factors have been proposed as a means to extrapolate from data on the concentrations hazardous to a small sample of species to the concentration hazardous to p% of the species in a given community (HCp). Aldenberg and Jaworska [2000. Uncer... Read More about On the application of loss functions in determining assessment factors for ecological risk..

Making Species Salinity Sensitivity Distributions Reflective of Naturally Occurring Communities: Using Rapid Testing and Bayesian Statistics (2008)
Journal Article
Hickey, G. L., Kefford, B. J., Dunlop, J. E., & Craig, P. S. (2008). Making Species Salinity Sensitivity Distributions Reflective of Naturally Occurring Communities: Using Rapid Testing and Bayesian Statistics. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 27(11), 2403-2411. https://doi.org/10.1897/08-079.1

Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) may accurately predict the proportion of species in a community that are at hazard from environmental contaminants only if they contain sensitivity data from a large sample of species representative of the mix... Read More about Making Species Salinity Sensitivity Distributions Reflective of Naturally Occurring Communities: Using Rapid Testing and Bayesian Statistics.

A new reconstruction of multivariate normal orthant probabilities (2007)
Journal Article
Craig, P. (2008). A new reconstruction of multivariate normal orthant probabilities. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 70(1), 227-243. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2007.00625.x

A new method is introduced for geometrically reconstructing orthant probabilities for non-singular multivariate normal distributions. Orthant probabilities are expressed in terms of those for auto-regressive sequences and an efficient method is devel... Read More about A new reconstruction of multivariate normal orthant probabilities.

Uncertainty factors in ecotoxicological risk management. (2006)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Craig, P. S. (2006, December). Uncertainty factors in ecotoxicological risk management. Presented at 4th Edinburgh Risk Conference., Edinburgh, UK

Uncertainty factors (also known as extrapolation or safety factors) are widely used in lower tier ecotoxicological risk management in order to allow for sources of variability and uncertainty for which there is only limited information. From the poin... Read More about Uncertainty factors in ecotoxicological risk management..

Mathematical and statistical basis of options for risk calculations - Appendix to EFSA Opinion on possibility of lowering uncertainty factors if additional species used in assessment of acute and chronic risk to aquatic organisms (2006)
Report
Craig, P. (2006). Mathematical and statistical basis of options for risk calculations - Appendix to EFSA Opinion on possibility of lowering uncertainty factors if additional species used in assessment of acute and chronic risk to aquatic organisms. European Food Safety Authority

Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from Commission related to the appropriate variability factor(s) to be used for acute dietary exposure assessment of pesticide residues in fruit and vegetables (2005)
Report
Barcelo Culleres, D., Black, R., Boesten, J., Boobis, A., Hardy, A., Hart, A., …Walters, E. (2005). Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from Commission related to the appropriate variability factor(s) to be used for acute dietary exposure assessment of pesticide residues in fruit and vegetables. European Food Safety Authority

In a batch of food items previously treated with a pesticide, the residue of the pesticide remaining on/in single food items at the time of consumption varies between items, due to a variety of factors. So there is a distribution of residues, with so... Read More about Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from Commission related to the appropriate variability factor(s) to be used for acute dietary exposure assessment of pesticide residues in fruit and vegetables.

Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from EFSA related to the assessment of the acute and chronic risk to aquatic organisms with regard to the possibility of lowering the uncertainty factor if additional species were tested (2005)
Report
Barcelo Culleres, D., Black, R., Boesten, J., Boobis, A., Hardy, A., Hart, A., …Roelofs, W. (2005). Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from EFSA related to the assessment of the acute and chronic risk to aquatic organisms with regard to the possibility of lowering the uncertainty factor if additional species were tested. European Food Safety Authority

The Scientific Panel on Plant Health, Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR Panel) was asked by EFSA for an opinion on the possibility of refining the acute and chronic aquatic risk assessment of pesticides by lowering the assessment fact... Read More about Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from EFSA related to the assessment of the acute and chronic risk to aquatic organisms with regard to the possibility of lowering the uncertainty factor if additional species were tested.

Bayesian forecasting for complex systems using computer simulators (2001)
Journal Article
Craig, P., Goldstein, M., Rougier, J., & Seheult, A. (2001). Bayesian forecasting for complex systems using computer simulators. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96(454), 717-729. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214501753168370

Although computer models are often used for forecasting future outcomes of complex systems, the uncertainties in such forecasts are not usually treated formally. We describe a general Bayesian approach for using a computer model or simulator of a com... Read More about Bayesian forecasting for complex systems using computer simulators.

Constructing partial prior specifications for models of complex physical systems. (1998)
Journal Article
Craig, P., Goldstein, M., Seheult, A., & Smith, J. (1998). Constructing partial prior specifications for models of complex physical systems. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series D, The statistician, 47(1), 37-53. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00115

Many large scale problems, particularly in the physical sciences, are solved using complex, high dimensional models whose outputs, for a given set of inputs, are expensive and time consuming to evaluate. The complexity of such problems forces us to f... Read More about Constructing partial prior specifications for models of complex physical systems..