Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments

Benford, Diane; Halldorsson, Thorhallur; Jeger, Michael John; Knutsen, Helle Katrine; More, Simon; Naegeli, Hanspeter; Noteborn, Hubert; Ockleford, Colin; Ricci, Antonia; Rychen, Guido; Schlatter, Josef R; Silano, Vittorio; Solecki, Roland; Turck, Dominique; Younes, Maged; Craig, Peter; Hart, Andrew; Von Goetz, Natalie; Koutsoumanis, Kostas; Mortensen, Alicja; Ossendorp, Bernadette; Martino, Laura; Merten, Caroline; Mosbach‐Schulz, Olaf; Hardy, Anthony

Abstract

Uncertainty analysis is the process of identifying limitations in scientific knowledge and evaluating their implications for scientific conclusions. It is therefore relevant in all EFSA's scientific assessments and also necessary, to ensure that the assessment conclusions provide reliable information for decision-making. The form and extent of uncertainty analysis, and how the conclusions should be reported, vary widely depending on the nature and context of each assessment and the degree of uncertainty that is present. This document provides concise guidance on how to identify which options for uncertainty analysis are appropriate in each assessment, and how to apply them. It is accompanied by a separate, supporting opinion that explains the key concepts and principles behind this Guidance, and describes the methods in more detail.

Citation

Benford, D., Halldorsson, T., Jeger, M. J., Knutsen, H. K., More, S., Naegeli, H., …Hardy, A. (2018). Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments. EFSA Journal, 16(1), Article e05123. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5123

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Nov 15, 2017
• Online Publication Date: Jan 24, 2018
• Publication Date: Jan 24, 2018
• Deposit Date: Jan 25, 2018
• Publicly Available Date: Jan 30, 2018
• Journal: EFSA Journal
• Print ISSN: 1831-4732
• Publisher: Wiley Open Access
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 16
• Issue: 1
• Article Number: e05123
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5123
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1340754