Probabilistic Forecasting of Bubbles and Flash Crashes
(2020)
Journal Article
Banerjee, A., Chevillon, G., & Kratz, M. (2020). Probabilistic Forecasting of Bubbles and Flash Crashes. The Econometrics Journal, 23(2), 297-315. https://doi.org/10.1093/ectj/utaa004
We propose a near explosive random coefficient autoregressive model (NERC) to obtain predictive probabilities of the apparition and devolution of bubbles. The distribution of the autoregressive coefficient of this model is allowed to be centred at an... Read More about Probabilistic Forecasting of Bubbles and Flash Crashes.