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Offshore Wind Turbine Reliability and Operational Simulation under Uncertainties

Dao, Cuong D.; Kazemtabrizi, Behzad; Crabtree, Christopher J.

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Authors

Cuong D. Dao



Abstract

The fast‐growing offshore wind energy sector brings opportunities to provide a sustainable energy resource but also challenges in offshore wind turbine (OWT) operation and maintenance management. Existing operational simulation models assume deterministic input reliability and failure cost data, whereas OWT reliability and failure costs vary depending on several factors, and it is often not possible to specify them with certainty. This paper focuses on modelling reliability and failure cost uncertainties and their impacts on OWT operational and economic performance. First, we present a probabilistic method for modelling reliability data uncertainty with a quantitative parameter estimation from available reliability data resources. Then, failure cost uncertainty is modelled using fuzzy logic that relates a component's failure cost to its capital cost and downtime. A time‐sequential Monte Carlo simulation is presented to simulate operational sequences of OWT components. This operation profile is later fed into a fuzzy cost assessment and coupled with a wind power curve model to evaluate OWT availability, energy production, operational expenditures and levelised cost of energy. A case study with different sets of reliability data is presented, and the results show that impacts of uncertainty on OWT performance are magnified in databases with low components' reliability. In addition, both reliability and cost uncertainties can contribute to more than 10% of the cost of energy variation. This research can provide practitioners with methods to handle data uncertainties in reliability and operational simulation of OWTs and help them to quantify the variability and dependence of wind power performance on data uncertainties.

Citation

Dao, C. D., Kazemtabrizi, B., & Crabtree, C. J. (2020). Offshore Wind Turbine Reliability and Operational Simulation under Uncertainties. Wind Energy, 23(10), 1919-1938. https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2526

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date May 7, 2020
Online Publication Date Jun 22, 2020
Publication Date 2020-10
Deposit Date May 7, 2020
Publicly Available Date Jun 24, 2020
Journal Wind Energy
Print ISSN 1095-4244
Electronic ISSN 1099-1824
Publisher Wiley Open Access
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 23
Issue 10
Pages 1919-1938
DOI https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2526

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Published Journal Article (Advance online version) (2.9 Mb)
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Publisher Licence URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Copyright Statement
Advance online version This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium,provided the original work is properly cited. © 2020 The Authors.







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