Comparing Stochastic Design Decision Belief Models: Pointwise versus Interval Probabilities

Matthews, P.C.

Abstract

Decision support systems can either directly support a product designer or support an agent operating within a multi-agent system (MAS). Stochastic based decision support systems require an underlying belief model that encodes domain knowledge. The underlying supporting belief model has traditionally been a probability distribution function (PDF) which uses pointwise probabilities for all possible outcomes. This can present a challenge during the knowledge elicitation process. To overcome this, it is proposed to test the performance of a credal set belief model. Credal sets (sometimes also referred to as p-boxes) use interval probabilities rather than pointwise probabilities and therefore are more easier to elicit from domain experts. The PDF and credal set belief models are compared using a design domain MAS which is able to learn, and thereby refine, the belief model based on its experience. The outcome of the experiment illustrates that there is no significant difference between the PDF based and credal set based belief models in the performance of the MAS.

Citation

Matthews, P. (2010, July). Comparing Stochastic Design Decision Belief Models: Pointwise versus Interval Probabilities. Presented at 4th International Conference on Design Computing and Cognition DCC'10, Stuttgart, Germany

• Presentation Conference Type: Conference Paper (published)
• Conference Name: 4th International Conference on Design Computing and Cognition DCC'10
• Start Date: Jul 12, 2010
• End Date: Jul 14, 2010
• Publication Date: Jul 1, 2010
• Deposit Date: Jul 20, 2010
• Publicly Available Date: Jul 23, 2010
• Publisher: Springer Verlag
• Pages: 327-345
• Series Title: Design Computing and Cognition
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1160475
• Publisher URL: http://mason.gmu.edu/~jgero/conferences/dcc10/
• Additional Information: Conference date: 12–14 July 2010