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Equipping for risk: Lessons learnt from the UK shale-gas experience on assessing environmental risks for the future geoenergy use of the deep subsurface.

Smedley, P L; Allen, G; Baptie, B J; Fraser-Harris, A P; Ward, R S; Chambers, R M; Gilfillan, S M V; Hall, J A; Hughes, A G; Manning, D A C; McDermott, C I; Nagheli, S; Shaw, J T; Werner, M J; Worrall, F

Equipping for risk: Lessons learnt from the UK shale-gas experience on assessing environmental risks for the future geoenergy use of the deep subsurface. Thumbnail


Authors

P L Smedley

G Allen

B J Baptie

A P Fraser-Harris

R S Ward

R M Chambers

S M V Gilfillan

J A Hall

A G Hughes

D A C Manning

C I McDermott

S Nagheli

J T Shaw

M J Werner



Abstract

findings are presented from an investigation to improve understanding of the environmental risks associated with developing an unconventional-hydrocarbons industry in the UK. The EQUIPT4RISK project, funded by UK Research Councils, focused on investigations around Preston New Road (PNR), Fylde, Lancashire, and Kirby Misperton Site A (KMA), North Yorkshire, where operator licences to explore for shale gas by hydraulic fracturing (HF) were issued in 2016, although exploration only took place at PNR. EQUIPT4RISK considered atmospheric (greenhouse gases, air quality), water (groundwater quality) and solid-earth (seismicity) compartments to characterise and model local conditions and environmental responses to HF activities. Risk assessment was based on the source-pathway-receptor approach. Baseline monitoring of air around the two sites characterised the variability with meteorological conditions, and isotopic signatures were able to discriminate biogenic methane (cattle) from thermogenic (natural-gas) sources. Monitoring of a post-HF nitrogen-lift (well-cleaning) operation at PNR detected the release of atmospheric emissions of methane (4.2 ± 1.4 t CH ). Groundwater monitoring around KMA identified high baseline methane concentrations and detected ethane and propane at some locations. Dissolved methane was inferred from stable-isotopic evidence as overwhelmingly of biogenic origin. Groundwater-quality monitoring around PNR found no evidence of HF-induced impacts. Two approaches for modelling induced seismicity and associated seismic risk were developed using observations of seismicity and operational parameters from PNR in 2018 and 2019. Novel methodologies developed for monitoring include use of machine learning to identify fugitive atmospheric methane, Bayesian statistics to assess changes to groundwater quality, a seismicity forecasting model seeded by the HF-fluid injection rate and high-resolution monitoring of soil-gas methane. The project developed a risk-assessment framework, aligned with ISO 31000 risk-management principles, to assess the theoretical combined and cumulative environmental risks from operations over time. This demonstrated the spatial and temporal evolution of risk profiles: seismic and atmospheric impacts from the shale-gas operations are modelled to be localised and short-lived, while risk to groundwater quality is longer-term. [Abstract copyright: Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.]

Citation

Smedley, P. L., Allen, G., Baptie, B. J., Fraser-Harris, A. P., Ward, R. S., Chambers, R. M., …Worrall, F. (2024). Equipping for risk: Lessons learnt from the UK shale-gas experience on assessing environmental risks for the future geoenergy use of the deep subsurface. Science of the Total Environment, 921, Article 171036. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171036

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Feb 15, 2024
Online Publication Date Feb 17, 2024
Publication Date Apr 15, 2024
Deposit Date May 2, 2024
Publicly Available Date May 2, 2024
Journal Science of the Total Environment
Print ISSN 0048-9697
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 921
Article Number 171036
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171036
Keywords Modelling, Induced seismicity, Groundwater, Baseline monitoring, Risk assessment, Greenhouse gases (GHGs)
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/2313796

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