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Physical Models for Solar Cycle Predictions

Bhowmik, Prantika; Jiang, Jie; Upton, Lisa; Lemerle, Alexandre; Nandy, Dibyendu

Authors

Jie Jiang

Lisa Upton

Alexandre Lemerle

Dibyendu Nandy



Abstract

The dynamic activity of stars such as the Sun influences (exo)planetary space environments through modulation of stellar radiation, plasma wind, particle and magnetic fluxes. Energetic solar-stellar phenomena such as flares and coronal mass ejections act as transient perturbations giving rise to hazardous space weather. Magnetic fields – the primary driver of solar-stellar activity – are created via a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism within stellar convection zones. The dynamo mechanism in our host star – the Sun – is manifest in the cyclic appearance of magnetized sunspots on the solar surface. While sunspots have been directly observed for over four centuries, and theories of the origin of solar-stellar magnetism have been explored for over half a century, the inability to converge on the exact mechanism(s) governing cycle to cycle fluctuations and inconsistent predictions for the strength of future sunspot cycles have been challenging for models of the solar cycles. This review discusses observational constraints on the solar magnetic cycle with a focus on those relevant for cycle forecasting, elucidates recent physical insights which aid in understanding solar cycle variability, and presents advances in solar cycle predictions achieved via data-driven, physics-based models. The most successful prediction approaches support the Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo mechanism as the primary driver of solar cycle variability and reinforce the flux transport paradigm as a useful tool for modelling solar-stellar magnetism.

Citation

Bhowmik, P., Jiang, J., Upton, L., Lemerle, A., & Nandy, D. (2023). Physical Models for Solar Cycle Predictions. Space Science Reviews, 219(5), Article 40. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-023-00983-x

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jun 22, 2023
Online Publication Date Jul 14, 2023
Publication Date 2023-08
Deposit Date Aug 3, 2023
Publicly Available Date Aug 3, 2023
Journal Space Science Reviews
Print ISSN 0038-6308
Electronic ISSN 1572-9672
Publisher Springer
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 219
Issue 5
Article Number 40
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-023-00983-x
Keywords Space and Planetary Science; Astronomy and Astrophysics
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1711452
Additional Information Received: 22 March 2023; Accepted: 22 June 2023; First Online: 14 July 2023; : ; : The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.





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