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Bayes linear kinematics and Bayes linear Bayes Graphical Models

Goldstein, M.; Shaw, S.


S. Shaw


Probability kinematics (Jeffrey, 1965, 1983) furnishes a method for revising a prior probability specification based upon new probabilities over a partition.We develop a corresponding Bayes linear kinematic for a Bayes linear analysis given information which changes our beliefs about a random vector in some generalised way. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for commutativity of successive Bayes linear kinematics which depend upon the eigenstructure of the joint kinematic resolution transform. As an application we introduce the Bayes linear Bayes graphical model, which is a mixture of fully Bayesian and Bayes linear graphical models, combining the simplicity of Gaussian graphical models with the ability to allow conditioning on marginal distributions of any form, and exploit Bayes linear kinematics to embed full conditional updates within Bayes linear belief adjustments. The theory is illustrated with a treatment of partition testing for software reliability.


Goldstein, M., & Shaw, S. (2004). Bayes linear kinematics and Bayes linear Bayes Graphical Models. Biometrika, 91(2), 425-446.

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date 2004-06
Deposit Date Apr 25, 2007
Journal Biometrika
Print ISSN 0006-3444
Electronic ISSN 1464-3510
Publisher Oxford University Press
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 91
Issue 2
Pages 425-446
Keywords Bayes linear Bayes graphical model, Bayes linear kinematics, Bayes linear sufficiency condition, Commutative kinematics, Joint kinematic resolution transform, Partition testing, Probability kinematics, Software reliability.