An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations

Gregory, R.D.; Willis, S.G.; Jiguet, F.; Voříšek, P.; Klvaňová, A.; van Strien, A.; Huntley, B.; Collingham, Y.C.; Couvet, D.; Green, R.E.

Abstract

Rapid climatic change poses a threat to global biodiversity. There is extensive evidence that recent climatic change has affected animal and plant populations, but no indicators exist that summarise impacts over many species and large areas. We use data on long-term population trends of European birds to develop such an indicator. We find a significant relationship between interspecific variation in population trend and the change in potential range extent between the late 20th and late 21st centuries, forecasted by climatic envelope models. Our indicator measures divergence in population trend between bird species predicted by climatic envelope models to be favourably affected by climatic change and those adversely affected. The indicator shows a rapid increase in the past twenty years, coinciding with a period of rapid warming.

Citation

Gregory, R., Willis, S., Jiguet, F., Voříšek, P., Klvaňová, A., van Strien, A., …Green, R. (2009). An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations. PLoS ONE, 4(3), Article e4678. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0004678

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Publication Date: Mar 1, 2009
• Deposit Date: Jan 25, 2012
• Publicly Available Date: Jan 27, 2012
• Journal: PLoS ONE
• Publisher: Public Library of Science
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 4
• Issue: 3
• Article Number: e4678
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0004678
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1529184