Current ecotoxicological risk assessment for chemical substances is based on the assumption that tolerances of all species in a specified ecological community are a priori exchangeable for each new substance. We demonstrate non-exchangeability by using a large database of tolerances to pesticides for fish species and extend the standard statistical model for species tolerances to allow for the presence of a single species which is considered non-exchangeable with others. We show how to estimate parameters and adjust decision rules that are used in ecotoxicological risk management. Effects of parameter uncertainty are explored and our model is compared with a previously published less tractable alternative. We conclude that the model and decision rules that we propose are pragmatic compromises between conflicting needs for more realistic modelling and for straightforwardly applicable decision rules.
Craig, P. S., Hickey, G. L., Luttik, R., & Hart, A. (2012). Species non-exchangeability in probabilistic ecotoxicological risk assessment. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 175(1), 243-262. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2011.00716.x
Journal Article Type
Jan 1, 2012
Feb 25, 2011
Publicly Available Date
Sep 6, 2013
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A
Assessment factors, ecotoxicology, exchangeability, risk assessment, species sensitivity
Accepted Journal Article
This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Craig, P. S., Hickey, G. L., Luttik, R. and Hart, A. (2012), Species non-exchangeability in probabilistic ecotoxicological risk assessment. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 175 (1): 243–262, which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2011.00716.x. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.