Climatic disequilibrium threatens conservation priority forests

Huntley, B.; Allen, J.R.M.; Bennie, J.; Collingham, Y.C.; Miller, P.A.; Suggitt, A.J.

Abstract

We test the hypothesis that climatic changes since 1800 have resulted in unrealised potential vegetation changes that represent a ‘climatic debt’ for many ecosystems. Caledonian pinewoods, an EU priority forest type, are used as a model system to explore potential impacts of two centuries of climatic change upon sites of conservation importance and surrounding landscapes. Using methods that estimate topographic microclimate, current and pre-industrial climates were estimated for 50 m grid cells and simulations made using a dynamic vegetation model. Core Caledonian pinewood areas are now less suitable for growth of pine and more favourable for oak than in 1800, whereas landscapes as a whole are on average more favourable for both. The most favourable areas for pine are now mainly outside areas designated to conserve historical pinewoods. A paradigm shift is needed in formulating conservation strategies to avoid catastrophic losses of this habitat, and of many others globally with trees or other long-lived perennials as keystone species.

Citation

Huntley, B., Allen, J., Bennie, J., Collingham, Y., Miller, P., & Suggitt, A. (2018). Climatic disequilibrium threatens conservation priority forests. Conservation Letters, 11(1), Article e12349. https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12349

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jan 21, 2017
• Online Publication Date: Mar 2, 2017
• Publication Date: Feb 10, 2018
• Deposit Date: Jan 30, 2017
• Publicly Available Date: Jan 30, 2017
• Journal: Conservation Letters
• Electronic ISSN: 1755-263X
• Publisher: Society for Conservation Biology
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 11
• Issue: 1
• Article Number: e12349
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12349
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1366400