Brexit or bremain? A person and social analysis of voting decisions in the EU referendum

Van de Vyver, J.; Leite, A.C.; Abrams, D.; Palmer, S.B.

Abstract

The period following UK's European Union referendum in 2016 foreshadows significant social and political change in the UK. The current research draws on social psychological theories to empirically examine the drivers of voting decisions during the referendum. We report the results of a prospective study using structural equation modelling with data (N = 244) collected just before, and self‐reported voting behaviour immediately following (N = 197), the European Union referendum. We employ a person and social approach to examine the additive roles of worldview, conservatism, social identity, and intergroup threat as predictors of voting intentions and behaviour. Results showed that person factors (worldview and conservatism) predicted voting intentions through social factors (European identity and realistic threat) and that intentions predicted behaviour. The results highlight the importance of addressing threat‐based intergroup rhetoric and the potential of common in‐group identity to mitigate psychological threat.

Citation

Van de Vyver, J., Leite, A., Abrams, D., & Palmer, S. (2018). Brexit or bremain? A person and social analysis of voting decisions in the EU referendum. Journal of Community and Applied Social Psychology, 28(2), 65-79. https://doi.org/10.1002/casp.2341

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Dec 20, 2017
• Online Publication Date: Jan 24, 2018
• Publication Date: Mar 1, 2018
• Deposit Date: Sep 6, 2018
• Publicly Available Date: Jan 24, 2019
• Journal: Journal of Community and Applied Social Psychology
• Print ISSN: 1052-9284
• Electronic ISSN: 1099-1298
• Publisher: Wiley
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 28
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 65-79
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/casp.2341
• Related Public URLs: http://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/30158/