Ben Swallow
Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling
Swallow, Ben; Birrell, Paul; Blake, Joshua; Burgman, Mark; Challenor, Peter; Coffeng, Luc E.; Dawid, Philip; De Angelis, Daniela; Goldstein, Michael; Hemming, Victoria; Marion, Glenn; McKinley, Trevelyan J.; Overton, Christopher E.; Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina; Pellis, Lorenzo; Probert, Will; Shea, Katriona; Villela, Daniel; Vernon, Ian
Authors
Paul Birrell
Joshua Blake
Mark Burgman
Peter Challenor
Luc E. Coffeng
Philip Dawid
Daniela De Angelis
Professor Michael Goldstein michael.goldstein@durham.ac.uk
Professor
Victoria Hemming
Glenn Marion
Trevelyan J. McKinley
Christopher E. Overton
Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths
Lorenzo Pellis
Will Probert
Katriona Shea
Daniel Villela
Professor Ian Vernon i.r.vernon@durham.ac.uk
Professor
Abstract
The estimation of parameters and model structure for informing infectious disease response has become a focal point of the recent pandemic. However, it has also highlighted a plethora of challenges remaining in the fast and robust extraction of information using data and models to help inform policy. In this paper, we identify and discuss four broad challenges in the estimation paradigm relating to infectious disease modelling, namely the Uncertainty Quantification framework, data challenges in estimation, model-based inference and prediction, and expert judgement. We also postulate priorities in estimation methodology to facilitate preparation for future pandemics.
Citation
Swallow, B., Birrell, P., Blake, J., Burgman, M., Challenor, P., Coffeng, L. E., …Vernon, I. (2022). Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling. Epidemics, 38, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547
Journal Article Type | Article |
---|---|
Acceptance Date | Feb 9, 2022 |
Online Publication Date | Feb 15, 2022 |
Publication Date | 2022-03 |
Deposit Date | Apr 5, 2022 |
Publicly Available Date | Apr 6, 2022 |
Journal | Epidemics |
Print ISSN | 1755-4365 |
Publisher | Elsevier |
Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
Volume | 38 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547 |
Public URL | https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1208586 |
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Publisher Licence URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
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