A robust Bayesian analysis of the impact of policy decisions on crop rotations

Paton, Lewis; Troffaes, Matthias C.M.; Boatman, Nigel; Hussein, Mohamud; Hart, Andy

Abstract

We analyse the impact of a policy decision on crop rotations, using the imprecise land use model that was developed by the authors in earlier work. A specific challenge in crop rotation models is that farmer’s crop choices are driven by both policy changes and external non-stationary factors, such as rainfall, temperature and agricultural input and output prices. Such dynamics can be modelled by a non-stationary stochastic process, where crop transition probabilities are multinomial logistic functions of such external factors. We use a robust Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of our model, and validate it by comparing the model response with a non-parametric estimate, as well as by cross validation. Finally, we use the resulting predictions to solve a hypothetical yet realistic policy problem.

Citation

Paton, L., Troffaes, M. C., Boatman, N., Hussein, M., & Hart, A. (2015, July). A robust Bayesian analysis of the impact of policy decisions on crop rotations. Presented at ISIPTA 2015, 9th international symposium on imprecise probability : theories and applications., Pescara, Italy

• Presentation Conference Type: Conference Paper (published)
• Conference Name: ISIPTA 2015, 9th international symposium on imprecise probability : theories and applications.
• Start Date: Jul 20, 2015
• End Date: Jul 24, 2015
• Acceptance Date: May 19, 2015
• Publication Date: Jul 24, 2015
• Deposit Date: Feb 18, 2015
• Publicly Available Date: Jun 17, 2015
• Pages: 217-226
• Book Title: ISIPTA ’15 : proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability : Theories and Applications, 20-24 July 2015, Pescara, Italy.
• Keywords: Multinomial logistic regression, Stochastic process, Robust Bayesian, Conjugate, Maximum likelihood, Crop, Decision.
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1152551
• Publisher URL: http://www.sipta.org/isipta15/?pag=proceedings
• Additional Information: 20-24 July 2015