Outputs (4)

Complex model calibration through emulation, a worked example for a stochastic epidemic model (2022)
Journal Article
Dunne, M., Mohammadi, H., Challenor, P., Borgo, R., Porphyre, T., Vernon, I., …Swallow, B. (2022). Complex model calibration through emulation, a worked example for a stochastic epidemic model. Epidemics, 39, Article 100574. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100574

Uncertainty quantification is a formal paradigm of statistical estimation that aims to account for all uncertainties inherent in the modelling process of real-world complex systems. The methods are directly applicable to stochastic models in epidemio... Read More about Complex model calibration through emulation, a worked example for a stochastic epidemic model.

Varying Coefficient Models and Design Choice for Bayes Linear Emulation of Complex Computer Models with Limited Model Evaluations (2022)
Journal Article
Wilson, A. L., Goldstein, M., & Dent, C. J. (2022). Varying Coefficient Models and Design Choice for Bayes Linear Emulation of Complex Computer Models with Limited Model Evaluations. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 10(1), 350-378. https://doi.org/10.1137/20m1318560

Computer models are widely used to help make decisions about real-world systems. As computer models of large and complex systems can have long run-times and high-dimensional input spaces, it is often necessary to use emulation to assess uncertainties... Read More about Varying Coefficient Models and Design Choice for Bayes Linear Emulation of Complex Computer Models with Limited Model Evaluations.

Intermediate Variable Emulation: using internal processes in simulators to build more informative emulators (2022)
Journal Article
Oughton, R., Goldstein, M., & Hemmings, J. (2022). Intermediate Variable Emulation: using internal processes in simulators to build more informative emulators. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 10(1), 268-293. https://doi.org/10.1137/20m1370902

Complex systems are often modelled by intricate and intensive computer simulators. This makes their behaviour difficult to study, and so a statistical representation of the simulator is often used, known as an emulator, to enable users to explore the... Read More about Intermediate Variable Emulation: using internal processes in simulators to build more informative emulators.

Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling (2022)
Journal Article
Swallow, B., Birrell, P., Blake, J., Burgman, M., Challenor, P., Coffeng, L. E., …Vernon, I. (2022). Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling. Epidemics, 38, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547

The estimation of parameters and model structure for informing infectious disease response has become a focal point of the recent pandemic. However, it has also highlighted a plethora of challenges remaining in the fast and robust extraction of infor... Read More about Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling.