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Forecasting the Effective Reproduction Number during a Pandemic: COVID-19 Rt forecasts, Governmental Decisions, and Economic Implications (2023)
Journal Article
Nikolopoulos, K., & Vasilakis, C. (2024). Forecasting the Effective Reproduction Number during a Pandemic: COVID-19 Rt forecasts, Governmental Decisions, and Economic Implications. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 35(1), 65-81. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpad023

This research empirically identifies the best-performing forecasting methods for the Effective Reproduction Number Rt of COVID-19, the most used epidemiological parameter for policymaking during the pandemic. Furthermore, based on the most accurate f... Read More about Forecasting the Effective Reproduction Number during a Pandemic: COVID-19 Rt forecasts, Governmental Decisions, and Economic Implications.

Intermittent demand, inventory obsolescence, and temporal aggregation forecasts (2023)
Journal Article
Sanguri, K., Patra, S., Nikolopoulos, K., & Punia, S. (2023). Intermittent demand, inventory obsolescence, and temporal aggregation forecasts. International Journal of Production Research, https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2023.2199435

Forecasting for intermittent demand is considered a difficult task and becomes even more challenging in the presence of obsolescence. Traditionally the problem has been dealt with modifications in the conventional parametric methods such as Croston.... Read More about Intermittent demand, inventory obsolescence, and temporal aggregation forecasts.

Social Collateral and consumer payment media during the economic crisis in Europe (2023)
Journal Article
Litsioua, K., & Nikolopoulos, K. (in press). Social Collateral and consumer payment media during the economic crisis in Europe. Journal of Quantitative Finance and Economics,

In this research paper we investigate the relationship between economic crises and the changes in levels of social collateral, as well as the indirect changes in the use of payment media from consumers as a result of the latter. The scene is Europe i... Read More about Social Collateral and consumer payment media during the economic crisis in Europe.

Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change (2023)
Journal Article
Grossmann, I., Rotella, A., Hutcherson, C. A., Sharpinskyi, K., Varnum, M. E., Achter, S., …Collaborative, T. F. (2023). Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change. Nature Human Behaviour, 7(4), 484-501. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the... Read More about Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change.