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A Bayesian spatio‐temporal model for short‐term forecasting of precipitation fields (2023)
Journal Article
Johnson, S. R., Heaps, S. E., Wilson, K. J., & Wilkinson, D. J. (2023). A Bayesian spatio‐temporal model for short‐term forecasting of precipitation fields. Environmetrics, https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2824

With extreme weather events becoming more common, the risk posed by surface water flooding is ever increasing. In this work we propose a model, and associated Bayesian inference scheme, for generating short-term, probabilistic forecasts of localised... Read More about A Bayesian spatio‐temporal model for short‐term forecasting of precipitation fields.

A sparse Bayesian hierarchical vector autoregressive model for microbial dynamics in a wastewater treatment plant (2022)
Journal Article
Hannaford, N., Heaps, S., Nye, T., Curtis, T., Allen, B., Golightly, A., & Wilkinson, D. (2023). A sparse Bayesian hierarchical vector autoregressive model for microbial dynamics in a wastewater treatment plant. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 179, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2022.107659

Proper function of a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) relies on maintaining a delicate balance between a multitude of competing microorganisms. Gaining a detailed understanding of the complex network of interactions therein is essential to maximisin... Read More about A sparse Bayesian hierarchical vector autoregressive model for microbial dynamics in a wastewater treatment plant.

Enforcing Stationarity through the Prior in Vector Autoregressions (2022)
Journal Article
Heaps, S. E. (2023). Enforcing Stationarity through the Prior in Vector Autoregressions. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 32(1), 74-83. https://doi.org/10.1080/10618600.2022.2079648

Stationarity is a very common assumption in time series analysis. A vector autoregressive process is stable if and only if the roots of its characteristic equation lie outside the unit circle, constraining the autoregressive coefficient matrices to l... Read More about Enforcing Stationarity through the Prior in Vector Autoregressions.

Encapsulated Nanodroplet Crystallization of Organic-Soluble Small Molecules (2020)
Journal Article
Tyler, A. R., Ragbirsingh, R., McMonagle, C. J., Waddell, P. G., Heaps, S. E., Steed, J. W., …Probert, M. R. (2020). Encapsulated Nanodroplet Crystallization of Organic-Soluble Small Molecules. Chem, 6(7), 1755-1765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chempr.2020.04.009

Small molecules can form crystalline solids, in which individual molecules pack together into ordered three-dimensional arrays. Once a suitable crystal is grown, the packing and atomic connectivity of the constituent molecules can be studied by X-ray... Read More about Encapsulated Nanodroplet Crystallization of Organic-Soluble Small Molecules.

Discussion of ''Modelling multivariate counts varying continuously in space'' by A. M. Schmidt and M. A. Rodriguez (2011)
Conference Proceeding
(2011). Discussion of ''Modelling multivariate counts varying continuously in space'' by A. M. Schmidt and M. A. Rodriguez. In J. M. Bernardo, M. J. Bayarri, J. O. Berger, A. P. Dawid, D. Heckerman, A. F. M. Smith, & M. West (Eds.), Bayesian Statistics 9: Proceedings of the Ninth Valencia International Conference on Bayesian Statistics. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof%3Aoso/9780199694587.001.0001