Wishful thinking in response to events: Evidence from the 2021 German federal election

Barnfield, Matthew; Phillips, Joseph; Stoeckel, Florian; Mérola, Vittorio; Stöckli, Sabrina; Lyons, Benjamin; Thompson, Jack; Szewach, Paula; Reifler, Jason

Abstract

When making uncertain judgments about the political future, people consistently see desired outcomes as more likely. But when major events reduce uncertainty about what is possible in the future, how do people's expectations respond? In a panel study conducted during the 2021 German federal election, we find that citizens' predictions of likely coalitions converge after the election takes place, but even after this convergence those expectations remain marked by significant partisan gaps. The election result substantially reduces uncertainty about coalition formation—decreasing, but far from eliminating, differences in expectations between groups with different preferences. Our findings provide a clear case of static wishful thinking (contemporaneous association between preferences and expectations) without dynamic wishful thinking (divergence over time in expectations in line with preferences), suggesting that citizens' expectations of the future, regardless of their prior commitments, respond accordingly to events, but wishful thinking persists even in contexts of dramatically reduced uncertainty.

Citation

Barnfield, M., Phillips, J., Stoeckel, F., Mérola, V., Stöckli, S., Lyons, B., Thompson, J., Szewach, P., & Reifler, J. (2025). Wishful thinking in response to events: Evidence from the 2021 German federal election. Electoral Studies, 95, Article 102940. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102940

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Apr 25, 2025
• Online Publication Date: May 8, 2025
• Publication Date: 2025-06
• Deposit Date: May 9, 2025
• Publicly Available Date: May 12, 2025
• Journal: Electoral Studies
• Print ISSN: 0261-3794
• Electronic ISSN: 1873-6890
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 95
• Article Number: 102940
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102940
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/3936756