Collision Course: How Iran and Israel Brought the Middle East to the Brink of War

Pinfold, Rob Geist; Jones, Clive; Ehteshami, Anoushiravan

Abstract

This policy analysis asks: what has caused and now sustains the violent escalation cycle that is re-defining the Middle East and how will this all end? It analyses Iran and Israel's grand strategies. It argues that both employ force to achieve strategic depth and both bifurcate the region into two blocs doomed to constantly fight for hegemony. Equally, they both share the same flaws. Israel and Iran alike prioritise conflict management over conflict resolution. But neither are effective are achieving this pessimistic goal. Concurrently, the ongoing conflict has precipitated a role reversal in Iran and Israel's regional visions. Israel is a traditionally a status quo power, whereas Iran has followed a revisionist grand strategy. However, it is Israel that is now the region's peremptory revisionist power. This is because the October 7 attacks have caused Israel to no longer tolerate hostile actors on its borders. Equally, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks a1967 moment: a regional reordering in Israel's favour. Conversely, Iran is now an increasingly status quo power; it seeks a cease-fire in the current conflict because it feels that it is losing and needs to preserve its regional assets.

Citation

Pinfold, R. G., Jones, C., & Ehteshami, A. (2025). Collision Course: How Iran and Israel Brought the Middle East to the Brink of War. Global Policy, 16(2), 289-298. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70004

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jan 31, 2025
• Online Publication Date: Mar 18, 2025
• Publication Date: 2025-05
• Deposit Date: Jun 2, 2025
• Publicly Available Date: Jun 2, 2025
• Journal: Global Policy
• Print ISSN: 1758-5880
• Electronic ISSN: 1758-5899
• Publisher: Durham University
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 16
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 289-298
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70004
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/3781124