Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal

Dunant, Alexandre; Robinson, Tom R.; Densmore, Alexander L.; Rosser, Nick J.; Rajbhandari, Ragindra Man; Kincey, Mark; Li, Sihan; Awasthi, Prem Raj; Van Wyk De Vries, Max; Guragain, Ramesh; Harvey, Erin; Dadson, Simon

Abstract

This study introduces a new approach to multi-hazard risk assessment, leveraging hypergraph theory to model the interconnected risks posed by cascading natural hazards. Traditional single-hazard risk models fail to account for the complex interrelationships and compounding effects of multiple simultaneous or sequential hazards. By conceptualising risks within a hypergraph framework, our model overcomes these limitations, enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard interactions and their impacts on infrastructure. We apply this model to the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal as a case study, demonstrating its ability to simulate the primary and secondary effects of the earthquake on buildings and roads across the whole earthquake-affected area. The model predicts the overall pattern of earthquake-induced building damage and landslide impacts, albeit with a tendency towards over-prediction. Our findings underscore the potential of the hypergraph approach for multi-hazard risk assessment, offering advances in rapid computation and scenario exploration for cascading geo-hazards. This approach could provide valuable insights for disaster risk reduction and humanitarian contingency planning, where the anticipation of large-scale trends is often more important than the prediction of detailed impacts.

Citation

Dunant, A., Robinson, T. R., Densmore, A. L., Rosser, N. J., Rajbhandari, R. M., Kincey, M., Li, S., Awasthi, P. R., Van Wyk De Vries, M., Guragain, R., Harvey, E., & Dadson, S. (2025). Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 25(1), 267-285. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Nov 13, 2024
• Online Publication Date: Jan 20, 2025
• Publication Date: 2025-01
• Deposit Date: Feb 25, 2025
• Publicly Available Date: Feb 25, 2025
• Journal: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• Print ISSN: 1561-8633
• Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
• Publisher: European Geosciences Union
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 25
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 267-285
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/3547774