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Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale

Marjakangas, Emma-Liina; Bosco, Laura; Versluijs, Martijn; Xu, Yanjie; Santangeli, Andrea; Holopainen, Sari; Mäkeläinen, Sanna; Herrando, Sergi; Keller, Verena; Voříšek, Petr; Brotons, Lluís; Johnston, Alison; Princé, Karine; Willis, Stephen G.; Aghababyan, Karen; Ajder, Vitalie; Balmer, Dawn E.; Bino, Taulant; Boyla, Kerem Ali; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; del Moral, Juan Carlos; Mazal, Vlatka Dumbović; Ferrarini, Alessandro; Godinho, Carlos; Gustin, Marco; Kalyakin, Mikhail; Knaus, Peter; Kuzmenko, Tatiana; Lindström, Åke; Maxhuni, Qenan; Molina, Blas; Nagy, Károly; Radišić, Dimitrije; Rajkov, Saša; Rajković, Draženko Z.; Raudoniki, Liutauras; Sjeničić, Jovica; Stoychev, Stoycho; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Ursul, Silvia; van Turnhout, Chris A. M.; Velevski, Metodija; Vikstrøm, Thomas; Wilk, Tomasz; Voltzit, Olga; Øien, Ingar Jostein; Sudfeldt, Christoph; Gerlach, Bettina; Shimmings, Paul; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

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Authors

Emma-Liina Marjakangas

Laura Bosco

Martijn Versluijs

Yanjie Xu

Andrea Santangeli

Sari Holopainen

Sanna Mäkeläinen

Sergi Herrando

Verena Keller

Petr Voříšek

Lluís Brotons

Alison Johnston

Karine Princé

Karen Aghababyan

Vitalie Ajder

Dawn E. Balmer

Taulant Bino

Kerem Ali Boyla

Tomasz Chodkiewicz

Juan Carlos del Moral

Vlatka Dumbović Mazal

Alessandro Ferrarini

Carlos Godinho

Marco Gustin

Mikhail Kalyakin

Peter Knaus

Tatiana Kuzmenko

Åke Lindström

Qenan Maxhuni

Blas Molina

Károly Nagy

Dimitrije Radišić

Saša Rajkov

Draženko Z. Rajković

Liutauras Raudoniki

Jovica Sjeničić

Stoycho Stoychev

Tibor Szép

Norbert Teufelbauer

Silvia Ursul

Chris A. M. van Turnhout

Metodija Velevski

Thomas Vikstrøm

Tomasz Wilk

Olga Voltzit

Ingar Jostein Øien

Christoph Sudfeldt

Bettina Gerlach

Paul Shimmings

Aleksi Lehikoinen



Abstract

Species’ range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980s and their compositional best match in the 2010s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.

Citation

Marjakangas, E., Bosco, L., Versluijs, M., Xu, Y., Santangeli, A., Holopainen, S., …Lehikoinen, A. (2023). Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(23), Article 213330120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2213330120

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Apr 24, 2023
Online Publication Date May 30, 2023
Publication Date Jun 6, 2023
Deposit Date Jan 23, 2024
Publicly Available Date Jan 23, 2024
Journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Print ISSN 0027-8424
Electronic ISSN 1091-6490
Publisher National Academy of Sciences
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 120
Issue 23
Article Number 213330120
DOI https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2213330120
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/2161423
Related Public URLs https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2310628120

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