Forecasting the Effective Reproduction Number during a Pandemic: COVID-19 Rt forecasts, Governmental Decisions, and Economic Implications

Nikolopoulos, Kostas; Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis

Abstract

This research empirically identifies the best-performing forecasting methods for the Effective Reproduction Number Rt of COVID-19, the most used epidemiological parameter for policymaking during the pandemic. Furthermore, based on the most accurate forecasts for the United Kingdom, we model the excess exports and imports during the pandemic (using World Trade Organization data), while simultaneously controlling for governmental decisions, i.e., lockdown(s) and vaccination. We provide empirical evidence that the longer the lockdown lasts, the larger the cost to the economy is, predominantly for international trade. We show that imposing a lockdown leads to exports falling by 16.55% in the United Kingdom; without a lockdown, the respective decrease for the same period would be only 1.57%. On the other hand, efforts towards fast population vaccination improve the economy. We believe our results can help policymakers to make better decisions before and during future pandemics.

Citation

Nikolopoulos, K., & Vasilakis, C. (2024). Forecasting the Effective Reproduction Number during a Pandemic: COVID-19 Rt forecasts, Governmental Decisions, and Economic Implications. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 35(1), 65-81. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpad023

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Oct 6, 2023
• Online Publication Date: Oct 15, 2023
• Publication Date: 2024-01
• Deposit Date: Nov 6, 2023
• Publicly Available Date: Nov 7, 2023
• Journal: IMA Journal of Management Mathematics
• Print ISSN: 1471-678X
• Electronic ISSN: 1471-6798
• Publisher: Oxford University Press
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 35
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 65-81
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpad023
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1898637