Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Howard, Christine; Marjakangas, Emma-Liina; Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra; Milanesi, Pietro; Abuladze, Aleksandre; Aghababyan, Karen; Ajder, Vitalie; Arkumarev, Volen; Balmer, Dawn E.; Bauer, Hans-Günther; Beale, Colin M.; Bino, Taulant; Boyla, Kerem Ali; Burfield, Ian J.; Burke, Brian; Caffrey, Brian; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Del Moral, Juan Carlos; Mazal, Vlatka Dumbovic; Fernández, Néstor; Fornasari, Lorenzo; Gerlach, Bettina; Godinho, Carlos; Herrando, Sergi; Ieronymidou, Christina; Johnston, Alison; Jovicevic, Mihailo; Kalyakin, Mikhail; Keller, Verena; Knaus, Peter; Kotrošan, Dražen; Kuzmenko, Tatiana; Leitão, Domingos; Lindström, Åke; Maxhuni, Qenan; Mihelič, Tomaž; Mikuska, Tibor; Molina, Blas; Nagy, Károly; Noble, David; Øien, Ingar Jostein; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Pladevall, Clara; Portolou, Danae; Radišić, Dimitrije; Rajkov, Saša; Rajković, Draženko Z.; Raudonikis, Liutauras; Sattler, Thomas; Saveljić, Darko; Shimmings, Paul; Sjenicic, Jovica; Šťastný, Karel; Stoychev, Stoycho; Strus, Iur...

Abstract

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

Citation

Howard, C., Marjakangas, E., Morán-Ordóñez, A., Milanesi, P., Abuladze, A., Aghababyan, K., …Willis, S. G. (2023). Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability. Nature Communications, 14(1), Article 4304. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: May 23, 2023
• Online Publication Date: Jul 20, 2023
• Publication Date: 2023-07
• Deposit Date: Oct 31, 2023
• Publicly Available Date: Oct 31, 2023
• Journal: Nature Communications
• Publisher: Nature Research
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 14
• Issue: 1
• Article Number: 4304
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1
• Keywords: General Physics and Astronomy; General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology; General Chemistry; Multidisciplinary
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1872645