Professor Nancy Cartwright nancy.cartwright@durham.ac.uk
Professor
Counterfactuals in Economics: A Commentary
Cartwright, N
Authors
Contributors
J Keim Campbell
Editor
M.O O'Rourke
Editor
H.S Silverman
Editor
Abstract
Counterfactuals are a hot topic in economics today, at least among economists concerned with methodology. I shall argue that on the whole this is a mistake. Usually the counterfactuals on offer are proposed as causal surrogates. But at best they provide a “sometimes” way for finding out about causal relations, not a stand-in for them. I say a “sometimes way” because they do so only in very special -- and rare -- kinds of systems. Otherwise they are irrelevant to establishing facts about causation. On the other hand, viewed just as straight counterfactuals, they are a washout as well. For they are rarely an answer to any genuine “What if…?” questions, questions of the kind we pose in planning and evaluation. For these two reasons I call the counterfactuals of recent interest in economics, impostor counterfactuals.
Citation
Cartwright, N. (2007). Counterfactuals in Economics: A Commentary. In J. Keim Campbell, M. O'Rourke, & H. Silverman (Eds.), Causation and explanation (191-216). Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press
Publication Date | Jan 1, 2007 |
---|---|
Deposit Date | Sep 22, 2015 |
Publicly Available Date | Apr 21, 2016 |
Publisher | Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press |
Pages | 191-216 |
Book Title | Causation and explanation. |
Public URL | https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1669319 |
Publisher URL | https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/causation-and-explanation |
Additional Information | Also in N. Cartwright (2007) Hunting Causes and Using Them. |
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Copyright Statement
Deposited with kind permission of the MIT Press for non-commercial, scholarly use only. This chapter was originally published in J.K. Campbell, M. O'Rourke, and H.S. Silverstein (Eds.), Causation and Explanation, © 2007 MIT, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, (pp. 191-216).
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