Counterfactuals in Economics: A Commentary

Cartwright, N

Abstract

Counterfactuals are a hot topic in economics today, at least among economists concerned with methodology. I shall argue that on the whole this is a mistake. Usually the counterfactuals on offer are proposed as causal surrogates. But at best they provide a “sometimes” way for finding out about causal relations, not a stand-in for them. I say a “sometimes way” because they do so only in very special -- and rare -- kinds of systems. Otherwise they are irrelevant to establishing facts about causation. On the other hand, viewed just as straight counterfactuals, they are a washout as well. For they are rarely an answer to any genuine “What if…?” questions, questions of the kind we pose in planning and evaluation. For these two reasons I call the counterfactuals of recent interest in economics, impostor counterfactuals.

Citation

Cartwright, N. (2007). Counterfactuals in Economics: A Commentary. In J. Keim Campbell, M. O'Rourke, & H. Silverman (Eds.), Causation and explanation (191-216). Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press

• Publication Date: Jan 1, 2007
• Deposit Date: Sep 22, 2015
• Publicly Available Date: Apr 21, 2016
• Publisher: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press
• Pages: 191-216
• Book Title: Causation and explanation.
• Publisher URL: https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/causation-and-explanation
• Additional Information: Also in N. Cartwright (2007) Hunting Causes and Using Them.