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Predictions for Herschel from Λ-cold dark matter : unveiling the cosmic star formation history

Lacey, C.G.; Baugh, C.M.; Frenk, C.S.; Benson, A.J.; Orsi, A.; Silva, L.; Granato, G.L.; Bressan, A.

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A.J. Benson

A. Orsi

L. Silva

G.L. Granato

A. Bressan


We use a model for the evolution of galaxies in the far-infrared (far-IR) based on the Λ-cold dark matter cosmology to make detailed predictions for the upcoming cosmological surveys with the Herschel Space Observatory. We use the combined GALFORM semi-analytical galaxy formation model and GRASIL spectrophotometric code to compute galaxy spectral energy distribution (SEDs) including the reprocessing of radiation by dust. The model, which is the same as that in Baugh et al., assumes two different initial mass functions (IMFs): a normal solar neighbourhood IMF for quiescent star formation in discs, and a very top-heavy IMF in starbursts triggered by galaxy mergers. We have shown previously that the top-heavy IMF appears necessary to explain the number counts and redshifts of faint submillimetre galaxies. In this paper, we present predictions for galaxy luminosity functions, number counts and redshift distributions in the Herschel imaging bands. We find that source confusion will be a serious problem in the deepest planned surveys. We also show predictions for physical properties such as star formation rates and stellar, gas and halo masses, together with fluxes at other wavelengths (from the far-ultraviolet to the radio) relevant for multi-wavelength follow-up observations. We investigate what fraction of the total IR emission from dust and of the high-mass star formation over the history of the Universe should be resolved by planned surveys with Herschel, and find a fraction ∼30–50 per cent, depending on confusion. Finally, we show that galaxies in Herschel surveys should be significantly clustered.


Lacey, C., Baugh, C., Frenk, C., Benson, A., Orsi, A., Silva, L., …Bressan, A. (2010). Predictions for Herschel from Λ-cold dark matter : unveiling the cosmic star formation history. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 405(1), 2-28.

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Jun 11, 2010
Deposit Date Jan 28, 2012
Publicly Available Date Feb 19, 2015
Journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
Print ISSN 0035-8711
Electronic ISSN 1365-2966
Publisher Royal Astronomical Society
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 405
Issue 1
Pages 2-28
Keywords Dust, Extinction, ISM: evolution, Galaxies: evolution, Galaxies: formation, Galaxies: high-redshift, Infrared: galaxies.


Published Journal Article (2.3 Mb)

Copyright Statement
This article has been accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society ©: 2010 The Authors. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.

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