Confirmation and Adequacy-for-Purpose in Climate Modelling

Parker, Wendy

Abstract

Lloyd (2009) contends that climate models are confirmed by various instances of fit between their output and observational data. The present paper argues that what these instances of fit might confirm are not climate models themselves, but rather hypotheses about the adequacy of climate models for particular purposes. This required shift in thinking—from confirming climate models to confirming their adequacy-for-purpose—may sound trivial, but it is shown to complicate the evaluation of climate models considerably, both in principle and in practice.

Citation

Parker, W. (2009). Confirmation and Adequacy-for-Purpose in Climate Modelling. Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume, 83(1), 233-249. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8349.2009.00180.x

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Publication Date: 2009-06
• Deposit Date: Apr 19, 2013
• Journal: Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume
• Print ISSN: 0309-7013
• Electronic ISSN: 1467-8349
• Publisher: Oxford University Press
• Volume: 83
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 233-249
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8349.2009.00180.x
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1458786