Predictive inference for system reliability after common-cause component failures

Coolen, F.P.A.; Coolen-Maturi, T.

Abstract

This paper presents nonparametric predictive inference for system reliability following common-cause failures of components. It is assumed that a single failure event may lead to simultaneous failure of multiple components. Data consist of frequencies of such events involving particular numbers of components. These data are used to predict the number of components that will fail at the next failure event. The effect of failure of one or more components on the system reliability is taken into account through the system׳s survival signature. The predictive performance of the approach, in which uncertainty is quantified using lower and upper probabilities, is analysed with the use of ROC curves. While this approach is presented for a basic scenario of a system consisting of only a single type of components and without consideration of failure behaviour over time, it provides many opportunities for more general modelling and inference, these are briefly discussed together with the related research challenges.

Citation

Coolen, F., & Coolen-Maturi, T. (2015). Predictive inference for system reliability after common-cause component failures. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 135, 27-33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2014.11.005

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Nov 8, 2014
• Online Publication Date: Nov 15, 2014
• Publication Date: Mar 1, 2015
• Deposit Date: Nov 26, 2014
• Publicly Available Date: Nov 28, 2014
• Journal: Reliability Engineering and System Safety
• Print ISSN: 0951-8320
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 135
• Pages: 27-33
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2014.11.005
• Keywords: Common-cause failures, Lower and upper probabilities, Nonparametric predictive inference, ROC curves, Survival signature, System reliability.
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1441159