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Nonparametric tests for conditional independence using conditional distributions

Bouezmarni, T.; Taamouti, A.

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Authors

T. Bouezmarni



Abstract

The concept of causality is naturally defined in terms of conditional distribution, however almost all the empirical works focus on causality in mean. This paper aims to propose a nonparametric statistic to test the conditional independence and Granger non-causality between two variables conditionally on another one. The test statistic is based on the comparison of conditional distribution functions using an L2 metric. We use Nadaraya–Watson method to estimate the conditional distribution functions. We establish the asymptotic size and power properties of the test statistic and we motivate the validity of the local bootstrap. We ran a simulation experiment to investigate the finite sample properties of the test and we illustrate its practical relevance by examining the Granger non-causality between S&P 500 Index returns and VIX volatility index. Contrary to the conventional t-test which is based on a linear mean-regression, we find that VIX index predicts excess returns both at short and long horizons.

Citation

Bouezmarni, T., & Taamouti, A. (2014). Nonparametric tests for conditional independence using conditional distributions. Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, 26(4), 697-719. https://doi.org/10.1080/10485252.2014.945447

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jul 8, 2014
Online Publication Date Aug 15, 2014
Publication Date Oct 2, 2014
Deposit Date Oct 16, 2014
Publicly Available Date Mar 3, 2015
Journal Journal of Nonparametric Statistics
Print ISSN 1048-5252
Electronic ISSN 1029-0311
Publisher Taylor and Francis Group
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 26
Issue 4
Pages 697-719
DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/10485252.2014.945447
Keywords Nonparametric tests, Time series, Conditional independence, Granger non-causality, Nadaraya–Watson estimator, Conditional distribution function, VIX volatility index, S&P500 Index.
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1421834

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