Professor Judith Covey j.a.covey@durham.ac.uk
Professor
The effect of dynamic proximity cues on counterfactual plausibility
Covey, J.; Zhang, Q.
Authors
Q. Zhang
Abstract
Previous research has found that people consult closeness or proximity cues when they evaluate the plausibility or likelihood of a counterfactual alternative to reality. In this paper we asked whether the plausibility of counterfactuals extends to dynamic proximity cues that signal a sense of propensity or acceleration in the lead-up to an outcome. Subjects gambled on obtaining either three heads or three tails from three coin-flips. When they lost the gamble they thought it was more likely that they could have won if they had lost on the third coin-flip that was revealed rather than the first or second coin-flip. We discuss how the sense of propensity was raised prior to the revelation of the final decisive losing coin-flip which created a perception of psychological momentum towards winning. Moreover, the consequence of this propensity effect was to positively bias perceptions of the likelihood of the counterfactual winning outcome.
Citation
Covey, J., & Zhang, Q. (2014). The effect of dynamic proximity cues on counterfactual plausibility. Judgment and Decision Making, 9(6), 586-592
Journal Article Type | Article |
---|---|
Acceptance Date | Oct 5, 2014 |
Online Publication Date | Nov 1, 2014 |
Publication Date | Nov 1, 2014 |
Deposit Date | Dec 1, 2014 |
Publicly Available Date | Dec 9, 2014 |
Journal | Judgment and Decision Making |
Print ISSN | 1930-2975 |
Publisher | Society for Judgment and Decision Making |
Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
Volume | 9 |
Issue | 6 |
Pages | 586-592 |
Keywords | Counterfactual potency, Near-miss, Close counterfactuals, Proximity heuristic, Temporal-order effect, Propensity effect. |
Public URL | https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1416567 |
Publisher URL | http://journal.sjdm.org/14/14107a/jdm14107a.pdf |
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Publisher Licence URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Copyright Statement
Copyright: © 2014. The authors license this article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
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