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Imprecise inference for warranty contract analysis

Utkin, L.V.; Coolen, F.P.A.; Gurov, S.V.

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L.V. Utkin

S.V. Gurov


This paper presents an investigation into generalised Bayesian analysis of warranty contracts, using sets of prior distributions within the theory of imprecise probability. Explicit expressions are derived for optimal lower and upper bounds for the expected profit for the manufacturer of a product, corresponding to an imprecise negative binomial model for which two sets of prior distributions are studied. The results can be used to set a maximum value of compensation such that the manufacturer׳s expected profit remains positive, under vague prior knowledge.

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Jun 1, 2015
Deposit Date Feb 16, 2015
Publicly Available Date Feb 24, 2015
Journal Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Print ISSN 0951-8320
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 138
Pages 31-39
Keywords Generalised Bayesian analysis, Imprecise probability, Lower and upper expected profit, Warranties.
Public URL


Accepted Journal Article (416 Kb)

Copyright Statement
NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Reliability Engineering & System Safety. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 138, June 2015, 10.1016/j.ress.2015.01.011.

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