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Resilience of Natural Gas Networks during Conflicts, Crises and Disruptions

Carvalho, Rui; Buzna, Lubos; Bono, Flavio; Masera, Marcelo; Arrowsmith, David K.; Helbing, Dirk

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Lubos Buzna

Flavio Bono

Marcelo Masera

David K. Arrowsmith

Dirk Helbing


Human conflict, geopolitical crises, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters can turn large parts of energy distribution networks offline. Europe's current gas supply network is largely dependent on deliveries from Russia and North Africa, creating vulnerabilities to social and political instabilities. During crises, less delivery may mean greater congestion, as the pipeline network is used in ways it has not been designed for. Given the importance of the security of natural gas supply, we develop a model to handle network congestion on various geographical scales. We offer a resilient response strategy to energy shortages and quantify its effectiveness for a variety of relevant scenarios. In essence, Europe's gas supply can be made robust even to major supply disruptions, if a fair distribution strategy is applied.


Carvalho, R., Buzna, L., Bono, F., Masera, M., Arrowsmith, D. K., & Helbing, D. (2014). Resilience of Natural Gas Networks during Conflicts, Crises and Disruptions. PLoS ONE, 9(3), Article e90265.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jan 27, 2014
Online Publication Date Mar 12, 2014
Publication Date Mar 12, 2014
Deposit Date Apr 15, 2016
Publicly Available Date Apr 15, 2016
Journal PLoS ONE
Publisher Public Library of Science
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 9
Issue 3
Article Number e90265
Related Public URLs


Accepted Journal Article (233 Kb)

Copyright Statement
Copyright: © 2014 Carvalho et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

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