Presidential Address: Will This Policy Work for You? Predicting Effectiveness Better: How Philosophy Helps

Cartwright, N.

Abstract

There is a takeover movement fast gaining influence in development economics, a movement that demands that predictions about development outcomes be based on randomized controlled trials. The problem it takes up—of using evidence of efficacy from good studies to predict whether a policy will be effective if we implement it—is a general one, and affects us all. My discussion is the result of a long struggle to develop the right concepts to deal with the problem of warranting effectiveness predictions. Whether I have it right or not, these are questions of vast social importance that philosophers of science can, and should, help answer.

Citation

Cartwright, N. (2012). Presidential Address: Will This Policy Work for You? Predicting Effectiveness Better: How Philosophy Helps. Philosophy of Science, 79(5), 973-989. https://doi.org/10.1086/668041

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Publication Date: Dec 1, 2012
• Deposit Date: Sep 17, 2015
• Publicly Available Date: Sep 21, 2015
• Journal: Philosophy of Science
• Print ISSN: 0031-8248
• Electronic ISSN: 1539-767X
• Publisher: Philosophy of Science Association
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 79
• Issue: 5
• Pages: 973-989
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/668041