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Beyond climate envelope projections: Roe deer survival and environmental change

Davis, M.L.; Stephens, P.A.; Kjellander, P.

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Authors

M.L. Davis

P. Kjellander



Abstract

Research on climate change impacts has focused on projecting changes in the geographic ranges of species, with less emphasis on the vital rates giving rise to species distributions. Managing ungulate populations under future climate change will require an understanding of how their vital rates are affected by direct climatic effects and the indirect climatic and non-climatic effects that are often overlooked by climate impact studies. We used generalized linear models and capture–mark–recapture models to assess the influence of a variety of direct climatic, indirect climatic, and non-climatic predictors on the survival of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) at 2 sites in Sweden. The models indicated that although direct climatic effects (e.g., precipitation) explained some variation in survival, indirect climatic effects (e.g., an index of vegetation production), and non-climatic effects (hunting by lynx [Lynx lynx] and humans) had greater explanatory power. Climate change is likely to increase vegetation productivity in northern Europe, and, coupled with the positive effects of vegetation productivity on roe deer survival, might lead to population increases in the future. Survival was negatively affected by lynx presence where these predators occur and by human harvest in the site that lacked predators. In the future, managers might find that a combination of increased harvest and predation by recovering carnivore populations may be necessary to mitigate climate-induced increases in roe deer survival. Considering vegetation availability and predation effects is likely to improve predictions of ungulate population responses to variation in climate and, therefore, inform management under future climate change.

Citation

Davis, M., Stephens, P., & Kjellander, P. (2016). Beyond climate envelope projections: Roe deer survival and environmental change. The Journal of Wildlife Management, 80(3), 452-464. https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.1029

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Nov 11, 2015
Online Publication Date Jan 8, 2016
Publication Date Apr 1, 2016
Deposit Date Feb 26, 2016
Publicly Available Date Jun 28, 2017
Journal Journal of Wildlife Management
Print ISSN 0022-541X
Electronic ISSN 1937-2817
Publisher Wiley
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 80
Issue 3
Pages 452-464
DOI https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.1029
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1390641

Files

Accepted Journal Article (1.6 Mb)
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Copyright Statement
This is the accepted version of the following article: Davis, M. L., Stephens, P. A. and Kjellander, P. (2016), Beyond climate envelope projections: Roe deer survival and environmental change. The Journal of Wildlife Management, 80(3): 452-464, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.1029. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.






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