Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data

Horton, B.P.; Shennan, I.; Bradley, S.; Cahill, N.; Kirwan, M.; Kopp, R.E.; Shaw, T.A.

Abstract

Tidal marshes rank among Earth’s vulnerable ecosystems, which will retreat if future rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR) exceed marshes’ ability to accrete vertically. Here, we assess the limits to marsh vulnerability by analyzing >780 Holocene reconstructions of tidal marsh evolution in Great Britain. These reconstructions include both transgressive (tidal marsh retreat) and regressive (tidal marsh expansion) contacts. The probability of a marsh retreat was conditional upon Holocene rates of RSLR, which varied between −7.7 and 15.2 mm/yr. Holocene records indicate that marshes are nine times more likely to retreat than expand when RSLR rates are ≥7.1 mm/yr. Coupling estimated probabilities of marsh retreat with projections of future RSLR suggests a major risk of tidal marsh loss in the twenty-first century. All of Great Britain has a >80% probability of a marsh retreat under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 by 2100, with areas of southern and eastern England achieving this probability by 2040.

Citation

Horton, B., Shennan, I., Bradley, S., Cahill, N., Kirwan, M., Kopp, R., & Shaw, T. (2018). Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data. Nature Communications, 9, Article 2687. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05080-0

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: May 21, 2018
• Online Publication Date: Jul 12, 2018
• Publication Date: Jul 12, 2018
• Deposit Date: Jun 5, 2018
• Publicly Available Date: Jun 6, 2018
• Journal: Nature Communications
• Electronic ISSN: 2041-1723
• Publisher: Nature Research
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 9
• Article Number: 2687
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05080-0
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1357778