Professor Kevin Dowd kevin.dowd@durham.ac.uk
Professor
The Myth of Methusalah and the Uncertainty of Death: The Mortality Fan Charts
Dowd, K.; Blake, D.; Cairns, A.J.G.
Authors
D. Blake
A.J.G. Cairns
Abstract
This paper uses mortality fan charts to illustrate prospective future male mortality. These fan charts show both the most likely path of male mortality and the bands of uncertainty surrounding that path. The fan charts are based on a model of male mortality that is known to provide a good fit to UK mortality data. The fan charts suggest that there are clear limits to longevity—that future mortality rates are very uncertain and tend to become more uncertain the further ahead the forecast—and that forecasts of future mortality uncertainty must also take account of uncertainty in the parameters of the underlying mortality model.
Citation
Dowd, K., Blake, D., & Cairns, A. (2016). The Myth of Methusalah and the Uncertainty of Death: The Mortality Fan Charts. Risks, 4(3), Article 21. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks4030021
Journal Article Type | Article |
---|---|
Acceptance Date | Jun 22, 2016 |
Online Publication Date | Jul 4, 2016 |
Publication Date | Jul 4, 2016 |
Deposit Date | Oct 31, 2017 |
Publicly Available Date | Apr 25, 2018 |
Journal | Risks |
Electronic ISSN | 2227-9091 |
Publisher | MDPI |
Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
Volume | 4 |
Issue | 3 |
Article Number | 21 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.3390/risks4030021 |
Public URL | https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1345381 |
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Publisher Licence URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Copyright Statement
© 2016 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution
(CC-BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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