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A catchment-scale model to predict spatial and temporal burden of E . coli on pasture from grazing livestock

Oliver, David M.; Bartie, Phil J.; Louise Heathwaite, A.; Reaney, Sim M.; Parnell, Jared A.Q.; Quilliam, Richard S.

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Authors

David M. Oliver

Phil J. Bartie

A. Louise Heathwaite

Jared A.Q. Parnell

Richard S. Quilliam



Abstract

Effective management of diffuse microbial water pollution from agriculture requires a fundamental understanding of how spatial patterns of microbial pollutants, e.g. E. coli, vary over time at the landscape scale. The aim of this study was to apply the Visualising Pathogen & Environmental Risk (ViPER) model, developed to predict E. coli burden on agricultural land, in a spatially distributed manner to two contrasting catchments in order to map and understand changes in E. coli burden contributed to land from grazing livestock. The model was applied to the River Ayr and Lunan Water catchments, with significant correlations observed between area of improved grassland and the maximum total E. coli per 1 km2 grid cell (Ayr: r = 0.57; p < 0.001, Lunan: r = 0.32; p < 0.001). There was a significant difference in the predicted maximum E. coli burden between seasons in both catchments, with summer and autumn predicted to accrue higher E. coli contributions relative to spring and winter (P < 0.001), driven largely by livestock presence. The ViPER model thus describes, at the landscape scale, spatial nuances in the vulnerability of E. coli loading to land as driven by stocking density and livestock grazing regimes. Resulting risk maps therefore provide the underpinning evidence to inform spatially-targeted decision-making with respect to managing sources of E. coli in agricultural environments.

Citation

Oliver, D. M., Bartie, P. J., Louise Heathwaite, A., Reaney, S. M., Parnell, J. A., & Quilliam, R. S. (2018). A catchment-scale model to predict spatial and temporal burden of E . coli on pasture from grazing livestock. Science of the Total Environment, 616-617, 678-687. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.263

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Oct 24, 2017
Online Publication Date Oct 27, 2017
Publication Date 2018-03
Deposit Date Jan 3, 2018
Publicly Available Date Jan 3, 2018
Journal Science of the Total Environment
Print ISSN 0048-9697
Electronic ISSN 1879-1026
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 616-617
Pages 678-687
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.263
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1342540

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