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Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments

Benford, Diane; Halldorsson, Thorhallur; Jeger, Michael John; Knutsen, Helle Katrine; More, Simon; Naegeli, Hanspeter; Noteborn, Hubert; Ockleford, Colin; Ricci, Antonia; Rychen, Guido; Schlatter, Josef R; Silano, Vittorio; Solecki, Roland; Turck, Dominique; Younes, Maged; Craig, Peter; Hart, Andrew; Von Goetz, Natalie; Koutsoumanis, Kostas; Mortensen, Alicja; Ossendorp, Bernadette; Martino, Laura; Merten, Caroline; Mosbach‐Schulz, Olaf; Hardy, Anthony

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Diane Benford

Thorhallur Halldorsson

Michael John Jeger

Helle Katrine Knutsen

Simon More

Hanspeter Naegeli

Hubert Noteborn

Colin Ockleford

Antonia Ricci

Guido Rychen

Josef R Schlatter

Vittorio Silano

Roland Solecki

Dominique Turck

Maged Younes

Andrew Hart

Natalie Von Goetz

Kostas Koutsoumanis

Alicja Mortensen

Bernadette Ossendorp

Laura Martino

Caroline Merten

Olaf Mosbach‐Schulz

Anthony Hardy


Uncertainty analysis is the process of identifying limitations in scientific knowledge and evaluating their implications for scientific conclusions. It is therefore relevant in all EFSA's scientific assessments and also necessary, to ensure that the assessment conclusions provide reliable information for decision-making. The form and extent of uncertainty analysis, and how the conclusions should be reported, vary widely depending on the nature and context of each assessment and the degree of uncertainty that is present. This document provides concise guidance on how to identify which options for uncertainty analysis are appropriate in each assessment, and how to apply them. It is accompanied by a separate, supporting opinion that explains the key concepts and principles behind this Guidance, and describes the methods in more detail.


Benford, D., Halldorsson, T., Jeger, M. J., Knutsen, H. K., More, S., Naegeli, H., …Hardy, A. (2018). Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments. EFSA Journal, 16(1), Article e05123.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Nov 15, 2017
Online Publication Date Jan 24, 2018
Publication Date Jan 24, 2018
Deposit Date Jan 25, 2018
Publicly Available Date Jan 30, 2018
Journal EFSA Journal
Print ISSN 1831-4732
Publisher Wiley Open Access
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 16
Issue 1
Article Number e05123


Published Journal Article (3.6 Mb)

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Copyright Statement
© 2018 European Food Safety Authority. EFSA Journal published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd on behalf of European Food Safety Authority. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and no modifications or adaptations are made.

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