The Large-scale Coronal Structure of the 2017 August 21 Great American Eclipse: An Assessment of Solar Surface Flux Transport Model Enabled Predictions and Observations

Nandy, Dibyendu; Bhowmik, Prantika; Yeates, Anthony R.; Panda, Suman; Tarafder, Rajashik; Dash, Soumyaranjan

Abstract

On 2017 August 21, a total solar eclipse swept across the contiguous United States, providing excellent opportunities for diagnostics of the Sun's corona. The Sun's coronal structure is notoriously difficult to observe except during solar eclipses; thus, theoretical models must be relied upon for inferring the underlying magnetic structure of the Sun's outer atmosphere. These models are necessary for understanding the role of magnetic fields in the heating of the corona to a million degrees and the generation of severe space weather. Here we present a methodology for predicting the structure of the coronal field based on model forward runs of a solar surface flux transport model, whose predicted surface field is utilized to extrapolate future coronal magnetic field structures. This prescription was applied to the 2017 August 21 solar eclipse. A post-eclipse analysis shows good agreement between model simulated and observed coronal structures and their locations on the limb. We demonstrate that slow changes in the Sun's surface magnetic field distribution driven by long-term flux emergence and its evolution governs large-scale coronal structures with a (plausibly cycle-phase dependent) dynamical memory timescale on the order of a few solar rotations, opening up the possibility for large-scale, global corona predictions at least a month in advance.

Citation

Nandy, D., Bhowmik, P., Yeates, A. R., Panda, S., Tarafder, R., & Dash, S. (2018). The Large-scale Coronal Structure of the 2017 August 21 Great American Eclipse: An Assessment of Solar Surface Flux Transport Model Enabled Predictions and Observations. Astrophysical Journal, 853(1), Article 72. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/aaa1eb

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Dec 7, 2017
• Online Publication Date: Jan 24, 2018
• Publication Date: Jan 24, 2018
• Deposit Date: Jan 25, 2018
• Publicly Available Date: Jan 26, 2018
• Journal: Astrophysical Journal
• Print ISSN: 0004-637X
• Electronic ISSN: 1538-4357
• Publisher: American Astronomical Society
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 853
• Issue: 1
• Article Number: 72
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/aaa1eb
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1340330
• Related Public URLs: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017arXiv170805996N