Can extreme rainfall trigger democratic change? The role of flood-induced corruption

Rahman, M.H.; Anbarci, N.; Bhattacharya, P.S.; Ulubaşoğlu, M.A.

Abstract

Using a new dataset of extreme rainfall covering 130 countries from 1979 to 2009, this paper investigates whether and how extreme rainfall-driven flooding affects democratic conditions. Our key finding indicates that extreme rainfall-induced flooding exerts two opposing effects on democracy. On one hand, flooding leads to corruption in the chains of emergency relief distribution and other post-disaster assistance, which in turn impels the citizenry to demand more democracy. On the other hand, flooding induces autocratic tendencies in incumbent regimes because efficient post-disaster management with no dissent, chaos or plunder might require government to undertake repressive actions. The net estimated effect is an improvement in democratic conditions.

Citation

Rahman, M., Anbarci, N., Bhattacharya, P., & Ulubaşoğlu, M. (2017). Can extreme rainfall trigger democratic change? The role of flood-induced corruption. Public Choice, 171(3-4), 331-358. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-017-0440-1

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Mar 1, 2017
• Online Publication Date: Mar 9, 2017
• Publication Date: Mar 9, 2017
• Deposit Date: Aug 16, 2018
• Publicly Available Date: Aug 29, 2018
• Journal: Public Choice
• Print ISSN: 0048-5829
• Electronic ISSN: 1573-7101
• Publisher: Springer
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 171
• Issue: 3-4
• Pages: 331-358
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-017-0440-1
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1323081