Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices

Frigg, Roman; Bradley, Seamus; Du, Hailiang; Smith, Leonard A.

Abstract

The sensitive dependence on initial conditions (SDIC) associated with nonlinear models imposes limitations on the models’ predictive power. We draw attention to an additional limitation than has been underappreciated, namely, structural model error (SME). A model has SME if the model dynamics differ from the dynamics in the target system. If a nonlinear model has only the slightest SME, then its ability to generate decision-relevant predictions is compromised. Given a perfect model, we can take the effects of SDIC into account by substituting probabilistic predictions for point predictions. This route is foreclosed in the case of SME, which puts us in a worse epistemic situation than SDIC.

Citation

Frigg, R., Bradley, S., Du, H., & Smith, L. A. (2014). Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices. Philosophy of Science, 81(1), 31-59. https://doi.org/10.1086/674416

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Online Publication Date: Jan 1, 2014
• Publication Date: Jan 1, 2014
• Deposit Date: Jul 31, 2018
• Publicly Available Date: Aug 21, 2018
• Journal: Philosophy of Science
• Print ISSN: 0031-8248
• Electronic ISSN: 1539-767X
• Publisher: Philosophy of Science Association
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 81
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 31-59
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/674416
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1319844
• Related Public URLs: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/54817/