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Using Ice Cores and Gaussian Process Emulation to Recover Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial

Domingo, Dario; Malmierca‐Vallet, Irene; Sime, Louise; Voss, Jochen; Capron, Emilie

Using Ice Cores and Gaussian Process Emulation to Recover Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial Thumbnail


Authors

Irene Malmierca‐Vallet

Louise Sime

Jochen Voss

Emilie Capron



Abstract

The shape and extent of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) during the Last Interglacial (LIG) is a matter of controversy, with different studies proposing a wide range of reconstructions. Here, for the first time, we combine stable water isotopic information from ice cores with isotope‐enabled climate model outputs to investigate the problem. Exploring the space of possible ice‐sheet geometries by simulation is prohibitively expensive. We address this problem by using a Gaussian process emulator as a statistical surrogate of the full climate model. The emulator is calibrated using the results of a small number of carefully chosen simulations, and then permits fast, probabilistic predictions of the simulator outputs at untried inputs. The inputs are GIS morphologies, parameterised through a dimension‐reduction technique adapted to the spherical geometry of the setting. Based on the emulator predictions, the characteristics of morphologies compatible with the available ice‐core measurements are explored, leading to a reduction in uncertainty on the LIG GIS morphology. Moreover, a scenario‐based approach allows to assess the gains in uncertainty reduction which would result from the availability of better‐dated LIG measurements in Greenland ice cores.

Citation

Domingo, D., Malmierca‐Vallet, I., Sime, L., Voss, J., & Capron, E. (2020). Using Ice Cores and Gaussian Process Emulation to Recover Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 125(5), Article e2019JF005237. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jf005237

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Mar 30, 2020
Online Publication Date May 25, 2020
Publication Date May 31, 2020
Deposit Date Apr 23, 2020
Publicly Available Date May 26, 2020
Journal Journal of geophysical research. Earth surface.
Print ISSN 2169-9011
Electronic ISSN 2169-9011
Publisher American Geophysical Union
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 125
Issue 5
Article Number e2019JF005237
DOI https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jf005237
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1303580

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Publisher Licence URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Copyright Statement
© 2020. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.





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