Forecasting Tourist Arrivals in Greece and the Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks from the Countries of Tourists’ Origin

Gounopoulos, Dimitrios; Petmezas, Dimitris; Santamaria, Daniel

Abstract

This paper generates short-term forecasts on tourist arrivals in Greece and performs impulse response analysis to measure the impact of macroeconomic shocks from the origin country on future tourism demand. We find the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model outperforms exponential smoothing models in forecasting the direction of one year out of sample forecasts. However, this does not translate into point forecasting accuracy. Impulse response analysis on the impact of unemployment and tourists’ cost of living shocks shows that the source of downside risk to future tourism numbers is limited in scope, magnitude, and duration. Shocks to consumer confidence from the origin countries have no impact on future tourism demand. Our results offer important insights and implications for policymakers and tourist operators.

Citation

Gounopoulos, D., Petmezas, D., & Santamaria, D. (2012). Forecasting Tourist Arrivals in Greece and the Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks from the Countries of Tourists’ Origin. Annals of Tourism Research, 39(2), 641-666. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2011.09.001

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Sep 1, 2011
• Online Publication Date: Oct 26, 2011
• Publication Date: 2012-04
• Deposit Date: Aug 2, 2020
• Journal: Annals of Tourism Research
• Print ISSN: 0160-7383
• Publisher: Elsevier Masson
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 39
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 641-666
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2011.09.001
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1295585