Professor Kostas Nikolopoulos kostas.nikolopoulos@durham.ac.uk
Professor
Professor Kostas Nikolopoulos kostas.nikolopoulos@durham.ac.uk
Professor
Sushil Punia
Andreas Schäfers
Christos Tsinopoulos
Chrysovalantis Vasilakis
Policymakers during 1COVID-19 operate in uncharted 2territory and must make tough decisions. Operational Research - the ubiquitous ‘science of better’ - plays a vital role in supporting this decision-making process. To that end, using data from the USA, India, UK, Germany, and Singapore up to mid-April 2020, we provide predictive analytics tools for forecasting and planning during a pandemic. We forecast COVID-19 growth rates with statistical, epidemiological, machine- and deep-learning models, and a new hybrid forecasting method based on nearest neighbors and clustering. We further model and forecast the excess demand for products and services during the pandemic using auxiliary data (google trends) and simulating governmental decisions (lockdown). Our empirical results can immediately help policymakers and planners make better decisions during the ongoing and future pandemics.
Journal Article Type | Article |
---|---|
Acceptance Date | Aug 3, 2020 |
Online Publication Date | Aug 8, 2020 |
Publication Date | 2020 |
Deposit Date | Aug 4, 2020 |
Publicly Available Date | Aug 8, 2022 |
Journal | European Journal of Operational Research |
Print ISSN | 0377-2217 |
Publisher | Elsevier |
Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
Volume | 290 |
Issue | 1 |
Pages | 99-115 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.08.001 |
Public URL | https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1295464 |
Accepted Journal Article
(848 Kb)
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Publisher Licence URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Copyright Statement
© 2020 This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
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