Farm Households’ Perception of Weather Change and Flood Adaptations in Northern Pakistan

Aftab, Ashar; Ahmed, Ajaz; Scarpa, Riccardo

Abstract

This research investigates farm households' adaptations to climate change-driven monsoon floods in the rural district of Nowshera, Pakistan. Some households in these flood-affected communities have undertaken autonomous adaptations to flooding. We surveyed five hundred farm households from both flood-affected and unaffected villages to investigate the factors driving the uptake of the following autonomous flood adaptations: plinth elevation, grain storage, participation in communal flood preparations and the creation of edge-of-field tree lined shelterbelts. We used both binary and multivariate probit regressions to investigate the correlation across adaptation options. Empirical results suggest that access to agricultural extension services, off-farm work opportunities, past duration of standing floodwaters, farm to river distance, receiving post-flooding support and tribal diversity are the main drivers of flood adaptations. Moreover, we report the complementary uptake of adaptations in pairs. Given the prediction of climate change-driven flooding in the Hindu Kush, we recommend cost-effective policies that increase the resilience of vulnerable agricultural-dependent rural communities. In addition, we report that respondents perceived a change in weather towards hotter and dryer weather over the last ten years.

Citation

Aftab, A., Ahmed, A., & Scarpa, R. (2021). Farm Households’ Perception of Weather Change and Flood Adaptations in Northern Pakistan. Ecological Economics, 182, Article 106882. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106882

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Oct 6, 2020
• Online Publication Date: Jan 15, 2021
• Publication Date: Apr 30, 2021
• Deposit Date: Oct 15, 2020
• Publicly Available Date: Jan 15, 2022
• Journal: Ecological Economics
• Print ISSN: 0921-8009
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 182
• Article Number: 106882
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106882
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1253935