Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecast in five Indian river basins

Singh, Ankit; Tiwari, Shubham; Jha, Sanjeev Kumar

Abstract

Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) obtained from a numerical weather prediction model is used for streamflow forecasting. This study systematically evaluates the performance of a deterministic QPF obtained from a national agency, the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), compared with that obtained from three international agencies. For observation/reference datasets, we used satellite, raingauge, and satellite-gauge merged data products. The forecast skill is evaluated for 177 sub-basins in Ganga, Narmada, Mahanadi, Tapti, and Godavari river basins. Our results indicate that the forecast accuracy of NCMRWF is closely comparable with that of QPF obtained from a European agency. We conclude that selecting accurate observation/reference data is critical for forecast performance evaluation. We determine the preferred forecast and reference datasets in the selected river basins. Our results suggest that for estimating the parameters of a post-processor, a comparable dataset can be used for which data are available for a longer duration.

Citation

Singh, A., Tiwari, S., & Jha, S. K. (2021). Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecast in five Indian river basins. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 66(15), 2216-2231. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2021.1982138

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Aug 12, 2021
• Online Publication Date: Nov 3, 2021
• Publication Date: Nov 3, 2021
• Deposit Date: Oct 21, 2021
• Journal: Hydrological Sciences Journal
• Print ISSN: 0262-6667
• Electronic ISSN: 2150-3435
• Publisher: Taylor and Francis
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 66
• Issue: 15
• Pages: 2216-2231
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2021.1982138
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1230918