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Climate Change, Grape Phenology and Frost Risk in Southeast England

Llanaj, C.; McGregor, G.

Climate Change, Grape Phenology and Frost Risk in Southeast England Thumbnail


C. Llanaj


Background and Aims: Cultivation of grapevines in England is expected to benefit under climate change. Yet assessments of future wine-climates remain undeveloped. Accordingly, this study assesses how climate change might modify frost risk for Chardonnay in the Southeast England viticulture region. Methods and Results: Cold-bias corrected climate projections from the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) climate model under RCP8.5 are applied with phenological models to determine how frost risk and the timing of key grapevine phenophases might alter under climate change. Notwithstanding the uncertainties associated with projections of key viticulture related bioclimate variables, last spring frost is found to advance at a greater rate than budbreak indicating a general decrease in frost risk. Conclusions: Although projections point to an improving climate for viticulture across Southeast England frost will remain a risk for viticulture albeit at a reduced level compared to the present. Further the strong cold-bias found for temperature simulations used in this study needs to be given careful consideration when using the UKCP18 projections for climate change viticulture impact assessments. Significance of the Study: This study highlights the present sensitivity of viticulture to climate variability and the inherent uncertainty associated with making future projections of wine-climate under climate change.


Llanaj, C., & McGregor, G. (2022). Climate Change, Grape Phenology and Frost Risk in Southeast England. Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research, 2022, Article 9835317.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jul 1, 2022
Online Publication Date Dec 8, 2022
Publication Date Dec 8, 2022
Deposit Date Aug 16, 2022
Publicly Available Date May 23, 2023
Journal Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research
Print ISSN 1322-7130
Electronic ISSN 1755-0238
Publisher Wiley
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 2022
Article Number 9835317


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Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2022 C. Llanaj and G. McGregor. Tis is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution
License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly

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